SUNNY & WARM TODAY; RAIN & STORMS NEXT WEEK… Sunny skies are expected across the region on this Saturday. High temperatures will be in the low-80s. Rain will be possible Monday ahead of our next round of active weather slated to happen on Wednesday into Wednesday night. That is when a storm system associated with an advancing cold front will cross our region, bringing with it the threat of tornadoes and gusty winds.
I’ll have another detailed post later today about the developing severe weather risk setting up for midweek.
Have a great Saturday!
SEVERE WEATHER SETUP AHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY… Our first severe weather risk of the fall severe weather season will set up during the middle part of the upcoming week, specifically on Wednesday, October 27. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Deep South in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. Tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will be the concerns. This risk zone is a fairly uncommon “Day 6” outlook, valid 5 days from now. This highlights the increased model confidence in the potential for severe storms, but it says nothing about the intensity of the storms. We won’t know exactly how strong or severe these storms will be until we get into early next week. NOW is the time to start thinking about your severe weather safety plan. Research studies prove time and time again that folks that have a plan of action AHEAD OF severe weather events have the best outcomes. More Friday evening details are below.
WHAT IS A LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK?… If you know someone that is new to our local area, please pass this info to them as it is important we make as many folks aware as possible about the potential severe weather risk setting up. If you are new to the area or need a refresher as to what a “Level 2 risk” is, that is understandable as our area has not had a formal severe weather risk in quite some time. Basically, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma issues convective outlooks everyday. These outlooks have five risk levels, telling us the areas and zones that should be most concerned for severe storms. In this case, we have a Level 2 (out of 5) risk setting up for Wednesday, October 27. The risk area can and WILL change in the days ahead and outlook upgrades or downgrades may be possible. Levels 2, 3, 4, and 5 risk days are the ones that warrant our attention, particularly risk zones driven by a tornado threat. We don’t know hazard specifics just yet. Please check back in early next week for the very latest information.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… All of southern Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in this Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. This means we all have a risk of experiencing severe storms on Wednesday, perhaps into early Thursday morning. This Level 2 risk zone currently includes Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear, Seminole, Gateswood, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs, Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, Fairfield, Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid, Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay, Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill, Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown, Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, and Malcolm.
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH… Just outside of our local area, we note that a big chunk of the Deep South is also involved in this Level 2 risk zone, including areas near New Orleans (LA), Baton Rouge (LA), Houma (LA), Slidell (LA), Hattiesburg (MS), Jackson (MS), Meridian (MS), McComb (MS), Biloxi (MS), Pascagoula (MS), Butler, Demopolis, Linden, Sweet Water, Camden, Luverne, Livingston, Eutaw, Tuscaloosa, Marion, Selma, Centreville, Brent, Hayneville, Prattville, Clanton, Montgomery, Wetumpka, Lake Martin, Auburn, Tuskegee, Phenix City, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Geneva, Samson, Daleville, Eufaula, Dothan, Abbeville, Seaside, Freeport, DeFuniak Springs, Santa Rosa Beach, Bonifay, Panama City, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Blountstown, Marianna, Tallahassee, Albany (GA), Columbus (GA), and surrounding areas.
STORM MODES TBD; TORNADOES POSSIBLE… It remains too early to know exactly what storm modes will set up. If we have discrete cells develop out ahead of a line of storms, the tornado risk may be a bit higher. If, however, we have a line of storms move through, the damaging wind threat would be the greatest concern. I will have updates on this as we know more throughout the weekend.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates posted throughout the weekend in the RedZone Weather app. Have a wonderful Friday evening!
Our first severe weather setup of the fall severe weather season will likely happen on Wednesday, October 27. Now is the time to start thinking about your severe weather/tornado safety plan. More details here: https://t.co/FZEITSAa7L pic.twitter.com/xymsJ8HpJS
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 23, 2021
Thank you to Mrs. Resmondo and all of the 5th grade teachers at Jay Elementary School for inviting me to speak to their classes today. I failed to get a group pic! Really great group today discussing severe weather safety. 🌪
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 22, 2021
CLEARING SKIES TODAY & WARM WEEKEND; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK… Cloud cover will continue to diminish on this Friday as we look ahead to a weekend with beautiful weather. We are tracking a few showers and storms in northwest Florida this morning but these storms will quickly move out of our region by 10AM. High temperatures today will be in the mid-80s. Plenty of sunshine is ahead for Saturday and Sunday ahead of an increasing chance of rain and storms on Monday. We’re also looking ahead to the middle part of the upcoming week when strong to severe thunderstorms may become possible ahead of a cold front slated to move through our region. I’ve got all of your Friday morning forecast notes below.
STORMS AROUND THIS MORNING… Thunderstorms were “loud and proud” this morning near Monroeville, Uriah, Repton, Atmore, Evergreen, Brewton, and Century as a frontal boundary moved through these communities. No severe weather happened, but pea size hail was reported near Atmore around 6AM. What is left of these storms is now moving across northwest Florida with rain noted as of 7AM near Pensacola, Milton, and Crestview. These storms will continue to move southeast and ultimately will move out of area by 10AM at the latest.
NICE WEATHER FOR HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL TONIGHT… Mostly clear skies are in the forecast this evening for all of the high school football games slated to kick off at 7PM. Temperatures will be in the 68-71° range at kickoff with temperatures falling into the mid-60s by 9PM. No rain is expected at the games tonight.
SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW AND SUNDAY… Mostly sunny skies are ahead for the weekend on both Saturday and on Sunday. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-80s each day with morning lows expected to be near 60.
RAIN RETURNS NEXT WEEK; STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… Scattered thunderstorms will become more numerous on Monday ahead of a likely break from the rain on Tuesday. A cold front will spark off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday. That is when we have a developing risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WEDNESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included all of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk valid for Wednesday, October 27. The concern is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop out ahead of an advancing cold front slated to bring cooler, drier air into our region. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible in some of the stronger storms on Wednesday. While it is a bit too early to get into the specifics, Wednesday afternoon and evening seems to be the time in which the severe weather risk will likely be maximized. I will have another post later today detailing this developing risk.
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE NEXT WEEK… If you are missing the cooler weather we had earlier in the week, don’t fret! We have another cold front slated to move across our region. This cold front will likely move across the region on Thursday, ushering in cooler, drier air. High temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-70s with overnight lows in the 50s by the end of the upcoming week.
TROPICS TO REMAIN QUIET… The entirety of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet with no tropical storms or hurricanes expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or Atlantic Ocean over the next 5-7 days. The core of hurricane season is now behind us. It remains to be seen whether we will have more tropical systems. Some of the global weather models show a potential tropical storm developing in the eastern Caribbean Sea in about a week. Plenty of time between now and then to keep an eye on trends and certainly nothing to worry about or think twice about, for now.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I’ve got all of your forecast details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great weekend!
NOISY STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST… Thunderstorms draped along a frontal boundary are producing quite a bit of thunder early this morning near Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, and Century. These storms are moving southeast at about 25 mph. While the tornado risk and risk for severe weather in general remains quite low, these storms are producing quite a bit of lightning and loud thunder. Heavy rain will move into northwest Florida shortly. Ongoing updates are being posted in the RedZone Weather app and my next forecast video will be posted in the next few hours. Have a good Friday morning!