10:05AM July 6, 2020

SHOWERS & STORMS FORMING… Right on schedule, scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to rapidly fire up across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday. You can see the numerous small blips on the radar display with heavy rain noted at 10AM near Atmore, Booneville, Gulf Shores, and Foley.

More showers and storms will fire up over the next several hours.

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6:50AM July 6, 2020

STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY; WET PATTERN THIS WEEK… The “splash and dash” thunderstorms of summer will pop up across south Alabama and northwest Florida this afternoon into this evening. Widespread rain and storms will fire up later today across the region, paving the way for most spots to pick up between a quarter and half of an inch of rainfall. There could be some spots that remain dry today, but most areas will have rain and probably some thunder before the end of the day. Tornadoes are not expected today, and any storms that ramp up to severe levels will probably be very brief with the main concern being gusty winds. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s. This same pattern will essentially be on repeat over the next few days. Details about the tropics, including the latest discussion about the tropical system now inland over the Florida Panhandle, are below.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW INLAND OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE… The center of a tropical disturbance that was in the northern Gulf of Mexico crossed the Florida Panhandle coast overnight near Port St. Joe and Mexico Beach. The National Hurricane Center suggests there is a growing (40+%) chance that this system will move eastward and emerge over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic tomorrow or Wednesday. That is when the system may become a tropical storm and lift northeast, basically paralleling the coastline of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The good news is this system won’t have a noticeable impact on our weather pattern in south Alabama and northwest Florida.

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD RACING NORTHEAST IN ATLANTIC… Tropical Depression Five strengthened just a bit last evening and was declared Tropical Storm Edouard last night. Maximum winds are at 40 mph as Edouard continues to rapidly move out to sea in the Atlantic Ocean. Edouard has passed Bermuda and is moving northeast at 35 (yes, moving at 35) mph to the northeast. The system is expected to become post-tropical later today.

EARLIEST KNOWN 5TH STORM IN ATLANTIC BASIN HISTORY… The National Hurricane Center noted in their discussion last evening that Edouard is the earliest known 5th named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Emily on July 12, 2005.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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1:40PM July 5, 2020

TROPICAL MISCHIEF CLOSE TO HOME; NUMEROUS POP-UP STORMS… There is a low-end chance that a tropical storm may form just to our south in the northern Gulf of Mexico and rapidly move east or northeast in the hours ahead. This area of low pressure, developing along a stalled frontal boundary, won’t mean much for our local forecast other than an increased chance of rain today and on Monday. There are plenty of showers and thunderstorms around our region this afternoon with more storms expected to pop up over the next several hours. This will continue to be our lead weather story in the days ahead with “hit or miss” showers and storms. We’re also tracking a separate tropical depression near Bermuda that is moving out to sea. Let’s discuss all of your forecast details.

TROPICS: AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has introduced a very low chance that a developing area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico (not too far at all south of our local beaches) will become a tropical storm in the next 24-48 hours. Development is MORE likely to happen Tuesday into Wednesday of the upcoming week as this system emerges over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean near the Georgia and Carolinas. Even if the system develops into a tropical storm south of us, impacts will be negligible, other than increased rain chances today into tomorrow. Here is the latest from the NHC discussion: A broad area of low pressure located along the northern Gulf Coast is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible before the disturbance moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and could emerge offshore of the Carolinas later this week, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development.

TROPICS: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE NEAR BERMUDA… An area of low pressure developed well east of the Florida and Georgia coastline in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean yesterday to the point where the National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories. This system is branded as Tropical Depression Five. The center of this tropical depression has now passed Bermuda. TD5 is now moving out to sea and will never be a direct issue for the United States. The center of TD5 is located around 34.5 North and 63.0 West, or about 185 miles northeast of Bermuda. Maximum winds are at 35 mph. There is a chance this system may become a tropical storm as it continues to move out to sea. If it does, it will take the name “Edouard.”

NUMEROUS POP-UP STORMS TODAY… The local radar display remains quite active with numerous showers and thunderstorms noted at the time this video is being produced around 1:30PM. Heavy rain is happening near McIntosh, Fairhope, Daphne, Montrose, Spanish Fort, Whitfield, and Wilmer. These storms are drifting northwest very slowly. Don’t be surprised by downpours over the next few hours.

MORE SHOWERS & STORMS LIKELY THIS WEEK… You can basically carbon copy today’s forecast and paste it in for Monday and Tuesday as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region. Most of the showers and storms will occur in the afternoon and evening hours but just like today, there could be a few storms that pop up in the late morning hours as well. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s through Tuesday with morning lows in the low-70s.

POP-UP STORMS – SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW… Summertime in south Alabama and northwest Florida is notorious for pop-up thunderstorms. These are the storms that are likely to happen today. Gusty winds, heavy rain, lots of lightning, and loud thunder are the features of these storms. Most of the storms should remain under severe limits, but we know even the “non-severe” thunderstorms can often pack a punch this time of year. There is basically not a tornado risk today. Tornadoes are rare in the Deep South during the summer months unless we have a tropical system in play (we don’t right now – the area of low pressure to our south is too weak to be a big influence). No tornado issues expected today or this week.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video… Have a great evening!

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