SUNNY, MILD DAYS; COOL NIGHTS AHEAD; TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN CARIBBEAN… The last day of September is set to feature temperatures that are just a bit *below* our climatological norms for this time of year with highs in the 70s after our start in the 50s this morning. Full sunshine is expected throughout the day and in the next several days. The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea continues to warrant our attention. The National Hurricane Center continues to outlook the area in a 50-60% probability zone that a tropical storm will form in the next several days.

60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN… There is a 50-60% chance that a tropical storm will form in the western Caribbean Sea, perhaps just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, later this week or this weekend. Most of the major global weather models continue to show a tropical storm developing Friday or Saturday. There remains a large amount of uncertainty concerning the future track and intensity of the potential storm. There has been an encouraging (from the perspective of the southeastern U.S.) trend, however, over the last 24-48 hours showing a storm remaining at a lower latitude and potentially affecting Mexico and NOT the southeastern United States. Obviously we’re still quite early in this process, and model trends can and likely will change.

WARMER THURSDAY; SUNNY END TO THE WEEK… Temperatures are slated to increase into the 80s on Thursday before another cold front moves through our area Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. This will be a dry cold front with no rain or storms expected. Highs on Friday will be in the mid-70s once again.

FEW PASSING CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND… An upper-level atmospheric trough will continue to dominate our weather pattern locally this weekend. There could be a few passing clouds on Saturday into Sunday, but overall, quiet, cool conditions will prevail. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-70s with morning lows in the mid- to upper-50s this weekend. Perfect weather for high school football on Friday and college football on Saturday!

REMAINDER OF TROPICS ARE QUIET… Outside of the one tropical disturbance we are monitoring in the western Caribbean Sea, the remainder of the Atlantic Basin is quiet with no other tropical storms expected to develop over the next 3-5 days. Good news!

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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MUCH COOLER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK; CARIBBEAN TROPICAL MISCHIEF… Clearing skies and cooler temperatures are our local weather headline on this Tuesday. Now that a cold front has passed, we have cooler, drier, much more stable air flowing in from the northwest this morning. Lingering clouds and showers will clear out this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures today will be in the low-70s. The coolest temperatures of the fall season so far are set to happen in the overnight hours as most spots decline into the 50s. I expect most areas to have overnight lows in the low- to mid-50s by 6AM on Wednesday. Despite our weather pattern becoming much more calm locally in the days ahead, we are now watching the setup of what will likely be a developing tropical storm in the western Caribbean Sea this weekend or early next week. A few Tuesday morning forecast notes are below.

50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN CARIBBEAN SEA… The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate there is a growing chance of a tropical storm forming in the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea in 4-5 days. Water temperatures in the western Caribbean Sea are in the mid- to upper-80s. Combine that with a very hospitable upper-level atmospheric pattern and you get a recipe for a potential tropical storm to develop. Just to be clear, this system is not expected to develop today or tomorrow, but rather later in the week or the upcoming weekend. If this system develops into a tropical storm, the next name from the Greek Alphabet (since we have exhausted all of the regular names) is Gamma.

LONG RANGE IDEAS FOR TROPICAL MISCHIEF IN CARIBBEAN… It is totally normal to have ample uncertainty at this phase of a potential tropical storm coming together. That is pretty much exactly what we have. The trend in modeling over the last 24 hours has definitely been positive for Gulf Coast communities, however, as both the major models (GFS and ECMWF) have suggested a tropical storm developing in the western Caribbean then stalling out over the Yucatan Peninsula and then fading away entirely. Obviously that would be a major mudslide and flash flooding potential for Mexico and Belize, but that particular scenario would be good news for our local area. That is ONE idea from two models. We’ll keep watching the trends in the days ahead. Way too early to suggest potential local impacts may happen in our local area and on the flip side, way too early to give any type of all clear.

MILD DAYS & COOL NIGHTS AHEAD… Locally, we have a quiet, fall pattern set to continue for the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Sunny skies are expected each day starting tomorrow (Wednesday) with clear nights. Highs will generally be in the 70s with morning lows in the 50s, except at the immediate beaches where overnight lows will run a bit warmer (60s).

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a good day!

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COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS REGION; 50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT… Storms are moving out and cooler, drier, stable air is in the initial stages of moving into our region. The risk of any severe storms across our local area has ended as of 8:30PM. Overnight into Tuesday, we may have a few lingering showers behind the cold front. Temperatures are already near 60 degrees in parts of west Alabama. Our local weather pattern will be increasingly quiet with mild days and cool nights ahead. Our focus in the upcoming days will be on the developing tropical feature in the western Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center continues to raise the probability of tropical development. A few Monday evening forecast notes are below.

50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN CARIBBEAN… There continues to be a strong model signal that a tropical storm may form in the western Caribbean Sea later this week, this weekend, or perhaps even early next week. It remains too early to know where this storm will ultimately end up, but interests along the entire Gulf of Mexico coastline should monitor this system over the next several days. From NHC this evening: “A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.”

COOLER, DRIER AIR INCOMING OVERNIGHT… We could have some intermittent, lingering showers overnight into Tuesday. I expect skies to clear from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. Overnight lows on Tuesday morning will be around 60 degrees. High temperatures by 2PM will only be in the low-70s! An extended streak of sunny, mild days is ahead with cool nights. Overnight lows on Wednesday morning will be in the low- to mid-50s.

NEXT UPDATE… My next detailed video update and text discussion will be posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday. Have a great Monday evening!

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RISK OF STRONG STORMS DECREASING… Loud storms continue to move through parts of northern Covington, Butler, and Crenshaw counties this evening as of 7:45PM. The rest of our region, however, is becoming more quiet now that a cold front is pushing in. We can give an ALL CLEAR from the low-end severe weather risk to ALL parts of the following counties as of 7:45PM: Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Wilcox, and Baldwin. If you are in any part of those counties, your severe weather risk is now over. Those counties join Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties that previously got an all clear message a few hours ago.

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