6:58AM June 17, 2024

SCATTERED STORMS TODAY; MONITORING TWO DISTURBANCES IN TROPICS… Spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday, quite similar to what happened yesterday. Most of the shower and storm activity will happen in the afternoon and evening hours, although a few storms will be possible later this morning as well. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s and low-90s. We continue to monitor two areas of disturbed weather in the tropics. One system has at least some chance of throwing some moisture into our local area later this week and into the weekend.

DRIER PATTERN LOCALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY… Lower (not zero) rain chances are expected on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as an area of high pressure builds into our region. High temperatures will be in the low-90s with morning lows in the 70s. Highly isolated P.M. storms are not out of the question, but most locales will remain dry.

30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC… The area of concern that is developing in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean south of Bermuda is at the tail end of a decaying cold front that is slowly moving east. This area of disturbed weather will begin to rapidly move westward over the next few days. Nearly all of the major global weather models show this system being a rather small, compact, probably “weak” system. Some models ramp the system up to tropical storm status briefly, while others keep the system as an open trough of low pressure that would not take a name. Regardless of the intensity of the system, I expect rain in parts of north Florida and Georgia later this week. Some scenarios point to the system crossing into the Gulf of Mexico or remaining over land and moving into our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida FROM the east. If this scenario pans out, that would bump up our local rain chances later this week. Other impacts are to be determined, but because of the overall weak nature of the system, I doubt significant impacts will happen IF model trends continue. This is something I will be closely monitoring over the next few days.

70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN WESTERN GULF… There is a large area of disturbed weather that extends across parts of Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and much of Central America this evening. This feature is known as a Central American Gyre (CAG). The CAG is expected to rotate multiple areas of low pressure around it over the next few days. One of these lows may briefly become a tropical storm before moving into mainland Mexico later this week. We note that regardless of if a formal tropical storm happens, folks in Texas and western Louisiana should expect potentially significant heavy rain and flash flooding. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has parts of east Texas picking up 7-10 inches of total rainfall over the next 5 days.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have updates posted throughout the day as needed in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning.

Have a nice start to your week!

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6:28AM June 17, 2024

SCATTERED STORMS AT TIMES TODAY… Scattered thunderstorms will be the norm at times across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday. Widespread severe storms are not expected, but some of the storms will be loud at times.

High temperatures will be in the low-90s.

Have a nice start to your week!

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9:32PM June 16, 2024

TROPICAL SYSTEM IN ATLANTIC MAY BRING RAIN TO LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND… Two tropical hotspots continue to warrant attention on this Sunday evening. The developing system in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean warrants our focus over the next few days as the system may bring rain and potentially other impacts to parts of Alabama and Florida later this week and into the weekend. Our friends to the southwest across parts of western Louisiana and Texas will be monitoring the developing area of low pressure in the far southern Gulf that may cause excessive rainfall later this week. Below are the Sunday evening notes concerning these two systems.

30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC… The area of concern that is developing in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean south of Bermuda is at the tail end of a decaying cold front that is slowly moving east. This area of disturbed weather will begin to rapidly move westward over the next few days. Nearly all of the major global weather models show this system being a rather small, compact, probably “weak” system. Some models ramp the system up to tropical storm status briefly, while others keep the system as an open trough of low pressure that would not take a name. Regardless of the intensity of the system, I expect rain in parts of north Florida and Georgia later this week. Some scenarios point to the system crossing into the Gulf of Mexico or remaining over land and moving into our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida FROM the east. If this scenario pans out, that would bump up our local rain chances later this week. Other impacts are to be determined, but because of the overall weak nature of the system, I doubt significant impacts will happen IF model trends continue. This is something I will be closely monitoring over the next few days.

70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN WESTERN GULF… There is a large area of disturbed weather that extends across parts of Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and much of Central America this evening. This feature is known as a Central American Gyre (CAG). The CAG is expected to rotate multiple areas of low pressure around it over the next few days. One of these lows may briefly become a tropical storm before moving into mainland Mexico later this week. We note that regardless of if a formal tropical storm happens, folks in Texas and western Louisiana should expect potentially significant heavy rain and flash flooding. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has parts of east Texas picking up 7-10 inches of total rainfall over the next 5 days.

SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED LOCALLY MONDAY… Tomorrow will be quite similar to today with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Just like today, most of the storms should happen in the afternoon and evening hours, although a few areas of rain and storms may develop in the late morning hours as well. Widespread severe storms are not expected but some of the storms may be loud at times. High temperatures tomorrow will again be in the upper-80s and low-90s.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Be sure to join me then for an update on the tropics and a look at our local 7 Day Forecast. Have a nice Sunday evening!

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12:11PM June 16, 2024

SPOTTY STORMS DRIFTING INLAND… Most spots are dry across the region as of 12:11PM but we are observing scattered, small showers and thunderstorms that continue to develop and move inland. Heavy downpours of rain are happening at the moment near Wing, Dixie, Milton, Bellview, Beulah, Pensacola Beach, Bromley, and Chatom.

More storms are expected to develop over the next few hours. Have an indoor back up plan if you’re outside!

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8:52PM June 15, 2024

TROPICS SET TO BE MORE ACTIVE; TWO TROPICAL STORMS MAY FORM… The tropics are becoming more active with multiple areas that may see a named tropical storm form over the next 7 days. One area of concern is located in the southern Gulf. The good news for Alabama and northwest Florida is that this system probably won’t ever be a direct concern for the local area. The other disturbance is expected to develop in the southwestern Atlantic and approach The Bahamas, Florida, and/or potentially Georgia in about 5-7 days. Some scenarios point to the potential for our area to get a good bit of rain off this system in 6-8 days, but uncertainty at this point remains high.

60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN BAY OF CAMPECHE… The Central American Gyre (CAG) is a large area of spin in the atmosphere over parts of Central America. This CAG is expected to cause enough convection and spin to enable a tropical storm to form in the far southern Gulf of Mexico, specifically in the Bay of Campeche region, over the next several days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this area of interest a 60% chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next 7 days. Model guidance has consistently indicated this system will probably move west or northwest. If a named tropical storm forms, the system will likely make landfall in Mexico in 4-8 days. Interests in Texas and Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this developing system as there is uncertainty as to how far impacts may extend from the center of circulation. This may end up being a substantial rain event for parts of Mexico, Texas, and potentially Louisiana in about a week. For now, impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida from this system are not expected.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN ATLANTIC AND MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA… The system that may bring some rain to our local area in about one week has the potential to develop in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center has now flagged this area with a 20% chance of formal development. The ultimate track of this developing system will largely be influenced by a building ridge of high pressure to the north of the system that will cause record high temperatures for parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions over the next week. IF the system is a bit stronger, it will probably take a more northerly track toward north Florida and potentially Georgia as well. IF the system ends up being weaker, a more southerly track toward central or south Florida seems more likely. Regardless of the exact track, the steering of the system should continue to move it northwest toward the end of next week, likely putting south Alabama and northwest Florida in the zone to see some beneficial rain. Beyond that, impacts are uncertain, but for now, plan for increased rain chances in the Friday and Saturday timeframe in one week. Many question marks at this point on specifics concerning the future track and intensity of this system! I will have another detailed update posted on Sunday evening with the latest information.

POP-UP STORMS LIKELY LOCALLY SUNDAY… Scattered pop-up thunderstorms (not associated with any tropical system) are likely across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Sunday. Most of the showers and storms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will again be in the low- to mid-90s. Widespread severe storms are not expected on Sunday locally.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

I will have updates posted throughout the day on Sunday as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Saturday evening!

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