TROPICAL MISCHIEF IN GULF LATER THIS WEEK; 50% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT… Chances continue to increase that a tropical storm will develop in the west-central Gulf of Mexico later this week. The National Hurricane Center has indicated there is now a 50% chance of this development happening, up from a 30% chance last night. There is a chance that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida may happen during the upcoming weekend, although it is still too early to give specifics about what to expect. The big headline on this Sunday remains: Be aware that there may be a tropical storm in the Gulf in 5-7 days. Depending on where the system ends up, local impacts may be possible. This is something we’ll be carefully monitoring over the next few days. Locally, we’ve got a nice Sunday evening and Monday on tap with mostly sunny skies expected each day. P.M. pop-up thunderstorms will return as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of higher rain chances toward the weekend. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND MONDAY… Perfect pool weather! That’s how I would describe today as high temperatures are peaking in the low-90s across the region with plenty of sunshine. Don’t forget to wear sunscreen if you’re going to be outside this evening or on Monday. The UV Index is sky high in the 11-12 range locally. Rain chances are near zero today and remain very low for Monday. While I can’t completely rule out a rogue shower or storm on Monday, I expect vast majority of us to remain dry and hot with high temps again in the low-90s.
P.M. STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… The classic pop-up thunderstorms of summer will return on Tuesday and Wednesday, primarily in the afternoon and early evening hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but you know the drill: These pop-up storms may produce localized areas of very heavy rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and even small hail in the strongest of the storms. High temperatures midweek will be in the upper-80s with morning lows in the upper-60s.
50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GULF LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center continues to issue Special Tropical Weather Outlooks due to a growing chance of tropical development later this week in the west-central Gulf of Mexico. From the NHC midday discussion: “Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, centered inland over southeastern Guatemala, is forecast weaken into a remnant low or dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight. However, the remnants of Amanda are expected to move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days.” By the way, this system would almost certainly take the name of “Cristobal,” which is the next tropical name in our local Atlantic Basin. Since the low-level center of Tropical Storm Amanda faded away, this technically will be a “new” system, even though the influence of Amanda is certainly noted in the development process of what will likely be Cristobal.
LOCAL IMPACTS – TO BE DETERMINED… Let me stress: There is a chance that NO local impacts across south Alabama and northwest Florida ever happen because of this system. We still are a few days out from knowing conclusively whether direct local impacts will happen. Uncertainty at this phase of development IS expected and details will come more into focus over the next few days. The MOST likely scenario, as of Sunday, May 31, is that we will have slightly increased rain chances during the upcoming weekend. There could be a chance of a few stronger storms involved, depending on the exact track of what will likely be Tropical Storm Cristobal at that point. Please check back with me over the next few days as we continue to get more information.
REST OF ATLANTIC BASIN REMAINS QUIET… The area of low pressure we’ve been tracking well southeast of Bermuda and north of the Lesser Antilles has moved into an environment that no longer favors tropical or subtropical storm development. Other than the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, currently situated over the mountainous terrain of central America, the remainder of the Atlantic basin is quiet.
OFFICIAL KICKOFF OF HURRICANE SEASON TONIGHT… Monday, June 1 marks the formal beginning of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. We’ve already had Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha along the East Coast of the U.S. The next tropical cyclone name on the Atlantic Basin Naming List is “Cristobal.” NOAA and other agencies that issue hurricane season outlooks are suggesting the potential for an above average hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms expected, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. The “official” kickoff of hurricane season is Monday, June 1. The season will end on November 30. Stay with us throughout hurricane season. We’ll bring you the latest information in a reliable and concise way. No hype, no hyperbole, just the facts, per our long-standing policy.
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See all the details in your Sunday #rzw forecast video. I’ll have your next detailed forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Monday. Have a nice evening!
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