PARTLY CLOUDY & WARM SUNDAY; NICE START TO THE WEEK… Showers and storms are long gone to our east as a cold front has pushed all of the active weather away. Alabama and northwest Florida are now behind the advancing cold front, meaning we have drier air in place across the region. There are a few lingering clouds streaming in from the northwest, but this afternoon should be dry with little to nothing in the way of rain issues. There may be a shower or two, but I expect 99% of us to be dry into the evening. High temperatures peak around 83-84° this afternoon. Looking ahead, we have a nice start to the week on tap before a more unsettled pattern arrives later this week. Let’s talk about a few details…
NICE MONDAY & TUESDAY… Other than a few areas of fog in the morning hours, no major weather issues are expected on Monday or on Tuesday as an area of high pressure remains in control of our weather pattern. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s and near the 90 degree mark each afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are likely each day.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON… The first hint of a changing weather pattern will be on Wednesday when showers and storms have the potential to bubble up in the heat of the day. We’ll call it a 20% chance of rain/storms for now. These storms are similar to the ones we have in the peak heat of summer, popping up seemingly randomly and causing very heavy rain for a very small area. There could be quite a bit of lightning involved in these pop-up storms. Most folks on Wednesday will remain dry.
STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY… Rain chances will spike in the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday into Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined parts of north Mississippi, far northwestern Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and east Texas in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Thursday. While our local area is NOT included in that zone as of now, we’ll need to watch this weather system that will be ejecting out of the southern Plains and into the Mid-South region late in the week. There could be a few stronger storms around late Thursday or perhaps on Friday. Too early to know details, but we’ll keep you posted in the RedZone Weather app.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download of the RedZone Weather app. Once you have the RZW app downloaded to your respective iOS or Android device, be sure to go into the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Sunday #rzw forecast video… Have a great Sunday evening!
RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN EVENING… Storms are happening now (as of 7:15PM Friday) across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida, but our focus is clearly on Saturday evening when a more potent round of storms will likely move across our region from west to east. Rain and storms may kick off as early as the late morning hours before increasing in coverage throughout the afternoon and evening hours. The severe weather risk will be greatest in the evening hours from 4PM to 10PM Saturday. Check out the attached projected radar animation for Saturday to see one idea of specifics. Let’s look at a few details…
THUNDER & LIGHTNING ACROSS THE REGION NOW… General (non-severe) thunderstorms have bubbled up across the area on this Friday evening. At the moment, heavier downpours of rain are happening near Monroeville, Brewton, East Brewton, Riverview, Repton, Laurel Hill, Wagerville, and Millry. These storms are drifting northeast. I’m hearing quite a bit of loud thunder at our RedZone Weather studio in the northern part of Brewton, AL. “Loud and proud” storms, but the “bark is worse than the bite” at this point. Severe weather is NOT expected tonight or in the morning hours of Saturday. Here is a quick check of the current radar view as of 7:30PM…
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include all of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone to potentially see a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday evening. The core timeframe for severe weather will be 4PM to 11PM. Rain will be possible before and after this timeframe. While the main concern will be damaging straight line winds, there also will be a potential for hail and a few tornadoes. We note the tornado risk remains LOW, but not completely at zero. This will be a situation where scattered severe storms will be possible. Most of us will have a round of heavy rain, lightning, thunder, and gusty winds as a line of storms moves in from the west. Again, the severe issues should be scattered and not widespread. We all will need a way to get the warnings on Saturday evening, however, as a few tornado warnings may be possible.
SPECIFICS ON SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Rain will be increasingly likely after midday on Saturday. Storms will develop across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi and move into west Alabama most likely in the 4PM to 8PM time frame. Storms will slide eastward into south central Alabama and northwest Florida in the 6PM to 10PM time frame. Main concern is damaging wind gusts, but isolated tornadoes and hail will be possible too.
STORM MODES ON SATURDAY… The main feature we will be watching on Saturday afternoon and evening is a developing line of storms across Louisiana and Mississippi. This will probably manifest in the form of a QLCS/squall line, although we note that bowing segments will be possible along the line. Those bowing segments are where severe storms capable of downing a few trees will be possible. We will also need to watch any storms that develop in the afternoon and evening hours out ahead of the main complex of storms. Any of these discrete storms that can ramp up to severe levels could produce tornadoes. There still is LOW confidence on if/when discete supercell thunderstorms will be possible although we note the Storm Prediction Center has mentioned this possibility in some of their later discussions.
CANCEL PLANS? PROBABLY NOT… I get a lot of questions (and I appreciate your trust/interest!!) about whether someone should cancel evening plans because of storms moving in. My answer in this case is “probably not.” This is a Level 2 (out of 5) risk, meaning scattered instances of severe weather will be possible. That means that MOST (aka not all, but most) of us should be okay with no major issues. If heavy rain and/or lightning is a concern for your event, I would definitely have an indoor backup plan ready.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Unlike most weather apps, ALL of the content in the app is handcrafted, including all push notifications. Check out the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap on the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have a special Saturday morning update available here on Facebook and in the RZW app as we continue to monitor the severe weather potential setting up for Saturday evening!