ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING; T.S. ISAIAS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA… Isolated areas of rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly across inland areas of southwest Alabama. Temperatures on this Sunday are peaking in the mid-90s in most spots with plenty of sunshine in place as of 12:30PM. We continue to monitor Tropical Storm Isaias, located very near the east (Atlantic) coast of Florida. Isaias has weakened over the last 48 hours and now has maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. The system will continue to move north toward the South Carolina and North Carolina coast over the next 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to those areas. Beyond that, Isaias is expected to accelerate northeast into New England by Tuesday. That will likely be the last we hear about Isaias once we get to that point, but we’re now watching INVEST 94L, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean northeast of the Lesser Antilles. 94L is expected to remain over the open waters of the Atlantic, but the system may become a tropical storm this week. NHC puts the odds of that happening at a 60% chance. Locally, our weather forecast this week will be on repeat with plenty of heat, plenty of humidity, and perhaps a few P.M. storms. Let’s look at all of your Sunday evening forecast details.
FEW STORMS POSSIBLE LOCALLY TODAY… A few showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop over the next few hours across the region. The main focus area for storms will probably be northwest of I-65 in parts of Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Wilcox, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties. Those are the areas that have the greatest chance of seeing a shower or storm in the hours ahead. That isn’t to say that there won’t be a few rogue storms across south central Alabama or near the Alabama/NW Florida beaches, but I expect most of the storms today to happen farther inland. Temperatures are already in the low-90s at the time I’m producing this video around 12:30PM. I expect temperatures to peak in the mid-90s by 2PM in most spots. There will be some spots that see no rain today with ample sunshine.
ISAIAS NOW A TROPICAL STORM MOVING NORTH… Tropical Storm Isaias is now centered just offshore from the Atlantic coast of Florida. The center, as of the 10AM CDT advisory, was located 55 miles southeast of Fort Pierce, FL or about 120 miles south-southeast of Cape Canaveral. Isaias is moving north-northwest at 8 mph. Minimum central pressure is at 995 millibars. The system has gradually weakened over the last day or so. Due to the track being just offshore from the Florida Peninsula, it looks like land areas of Florida will be spared from major impacts. We knew it would be a nailbiter of sorts with just how close the center was/is to the Florida coast, and indeed, Isaias is a stone’s throw away from the local beaches in south Florida. That 50 miles or so made all the difference in the world in terms of impacts. The Carolinas, however, look to get quite a bit of heavy rain and gusty winds early this week as Isaias arrives on Monday into Tuesday.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EXTENDED TO CAROLINAS… The Tropical Storm Warning for the East Coast of the U.S. now extends from Surf City, FL to Duck, NC, including all parts of the Georgia and South Carolina coastline. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for a South Carolina or North Carolina landfall as Isaias moves north early this week. The influence of southwesterly shear continues to take a toll on the system, but some strengthening may happen before landfall since Isaias will be moving over the warm Gulf Stream current. Right now, the NHC forecast has landfall most likely to happen as a strong, 65 mph tropical storm on Monday night. Interests in South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and all of the coastal stretches of the Northeastern U.S. should continue to closely monitor the latest on Tropical Storm Isaias.
60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – INVEST 94L… NHC is also watching a tropical wave centered northeast of the Lesser Antilles that now has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm. Regardless of development, this system will likely remain over the open Atlantic Ocean with no land impacts expected. From NHC: “Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have changed little in organization this morning. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week. This system is forecast to turn northwestward and then northward over the western Atlantic, passing north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday.”
LOW (NOT ZERO) RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK; SUNNY & WARM… Rain chances will almost certainly be lower this week compared to the first half of last week when just about everyone across the region had rain and storms. Plenty of sunshine is expected each day this week with low (10-30%) rain chances each day. High temperatures will consistently be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW OFF THE BOARD… There was a short-lived tropical depression near the African coast over the last few days, but NHC issued its final advisory last evening. That system has dissipated and re-development won’t happen.
GULF & CARIBBEAN ARE QUIET… While we monitor Tropical Storm Isaias and INVEST 94L in the Atlantic, we note that the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are quiet with no tropical storm formation expected in those two zones over the next 3-5 days. Good news!
APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!
90% CHANCE OF NEW TROPICAL STORM IN ATLANTIC; SCATTERED STORMS LOCALLY… While Hanna and Gonzalo are on the way out, we’re now watching a new area of disturbed weather in the central Atlantic that has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical storm this week. This new system, when and if it develops, will take the name Isaias. This name is pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs, aka certainly a name that will be interesting when a bunch of meteorologists (including yours truly) start to say it. Locally, we’re stuck in a consistent pattern featuring afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures on this Sunday are peaking in the upper-80s for many across the region. More in the way of localized downpours are expected this week. Let’s look at your forecast details…
STORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA… Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms have been happening over the last hour (as of 2:15PM) across parts of Okaloosa and Walton counties in northwest Florida. We’re beginning to see the first of the afternoon storms bubble up across inland areas. As of 2:15PM, storms are firing near Repton, Range, Opp, Onycha, Beatrice, and Baker. I expect scattered to numerous storms to continue to fire up in the hours ahead. Be ready for the “splash and dash” variety of storms through the early evening hours.
NEW TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center indicates there is now a 90% chance that a tropical storm will develop in the central Atlantic, about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Thinking back to last week, this is pretty much the same area where Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed. The key difference between Gonzalo and this new system is that Gonzalo was a very small tropical system that was highly fragile and ended up succumbing to hostile atmospheric conditions. This new system (branded currently as INVEST 92L) has a much larger overall area. In other words, the “tropical wave envelope” is much larger than the one that ultimately formed into Gonzalo. This will act as an area of protection for the developing system, sealing it off in a more pronounced way from the drier air to the north of the system. See more info below about the long-term prognosis for INVEST 92L.
INVEST 92L (ISAIAS-TO-BE) TO MOVE WEST… Confidence is very high in the short-term that the tropical wave that is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaias will move west toward the Lesser Antilles in the days ahead. Interests in Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and Hispaniola should closely monitor this system as odds are high that impacts will happen later this week or during the upcoming weekend. Beyond that point, there is some uncertainty involved as to where this system will ultimately move. We note that most of the global models track this system near or perhaps just to the east of The Bahamas. This would bode well for the Gulf of Mexico region. It is too early to say that conclusively, but early model guidance certainly has featured a LOT of good news for our local area in this aspect. We’ll keep watching in the days ahead and bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WEAKENING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO… Hanna made landfall as a strong category 1 hurricane yesterday evening in Kenedy County, Texas, north of Brownsville and south of Corpus Christi. We note that heavy rain and flash flooding issues continue across parts of south Texas on this Sunday. A Tornado Watch is in effect for much of the south Texas region, including Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo, and Corpus Christi until 10PM as isolated tornadoes on the eastern flank of Hanna continue to be a possibility. Hanna has weakened to a tropical storm and is currently situated over the high terrain of northeast Mexico. Further weakening is expected and complete dissipation is likely over the next day or so.
GONZALO IS OFF THE BOARD… Just in case you missed the good news yesterday, Tropical Storm Gonzalo weakened to tropical depression status yesterday followed by complete dissipation last evening. The National Hurricane Center issued their final advisory. The remnants of Gonzalo are now an open, weak tropical wave moving across the southern Caribbean Sea. Redevelopment of the system is not expected.
LOCALLY, STORMS LIKELY IN P.M. HOURS EACH DAY THIS WEEK… While our focus has increasingly been on the tropics, our local weather pattern has remained pretty much the same with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the last week. More of the same is in store for the upcoming week. We get somewhat of a break from widespread rain and storms as we go into Thursday and Friday of this week. We’ll still have at least some chance of rain each day but I expect rain coverage to be less since we won’t have a fire hose of Gulf moisture pointed at our area. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s over the next few days with morning lows in the low-70s. Widespread severe weather is not in the forecast over the next 7-10 days.
APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video… Have a nice evening!