8:52PM June 15, 2024

TROPICS SET TO BE MORE ACTIVE; TWO TROPICAL STORMS MAY FORM… The tropics are becoming more active with multiple areas that may see a named tropical storm form over the next 7 days. One area of concern is located in the southern Gulf. The good news for Alabama and northwest Florida is that this system probably won’t ever be a direct concern for the local area. The other disturbance is expected to develop in the southwestern Atlantic and approach The Bahamas, Florida, and/or potentially Georgia in about 5-7 days. Some scenarios point to the potential for our area to get a good bit of rain off this system in 6-8 days, but uncertainty at this point remains high.

60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN BAY OF CAMPECHE… The Central American Gyre (CAG) is a large area of spin in the atmosphere over parts of Central America. This CAG is expected to cause enough convection and spin to enable a tropical storm to form in the far southern Gulf of Mexico, specifically in the Bay of Campeche region, over the next several days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this area of interest a 60% chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next 7 days. Model guidance has consistently indicated this system will probably move west or northwest. If a named tropical storm forms, the system will likely make landfall in Mexico in 4-8 days. Interests in Texas and Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this developing system as there is uncertainty as to how far impacts may extend from the center of circulation. This may end up being a substantial rain event for parts of Mexico, Texas, and potentially Louisiana in about a week. For now, impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida from this system are not expected.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN ATLANTIC AND MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA… The system that may bring some rain to our local area in about one week has the potential to develop in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center has now flagged this area with a 20% chance of formal development. The ultimate track of this developing system will largely be influenced by a building ridge of high pressure to the north of the system that will cause record high temperatures for parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions over the next week. IF the system is a bit stronger, it will probably take a more northerly track toward north Florida and potentially Georgia as well. IF the system ends up being weaker, a more southerly track toward central or south Florida seems more likely. Regardless of the exact track, the steering of the system should continue to move it northwest toward the end of next week, likely putting south Alabama and northwest Florida in the zone to see some beneficial rain. Beyond that, impacts are uncertain, but for now, plan for increased rain chances in the Friday and Saturday timeframe in one week. Many question marks at this point on specifics concerning the future track and intensity of this system! I will have another detailed update posted on Sunday evening with the latest information.

POP-UP STORMS LIKELY LOCALLY SUNDAY… Scattered pop-up thunderstorms (not associated with any tropical system) are likely across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Sunday. Most of the showers and storms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will again be in the low- to mid-90s. Widespread severe storms are not expected on Sunday locally.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

I will have updates posted throughout the day on Sunday as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Saturday evening!

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6:52AM June 14, 2024

HOT WEEKEND; TEMPS NEAR 100° TODAY AND SATURDAY… Plenty of heat and plenty of humidity will make for a very hot weekend with air temperatures possibly reaching the 100 degree mark this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon across south Alabama and northwest Florida. While the thermometer may briefly hit 100 degrees, the heat index values across the region will be in the 103-108° range today and tomorrow. Take it easy if you are planning to be outside for extended periods of time today, tomorrow, or on Sunday. Rain chances remain quite low today and tomorrow and skies are expected to remain mostly sunny. Rain chances will rise as we get into Sunday and Monday.

QUITE HOT TODAY AND TOMORROW… The numbers you see on thermometers across the region this afternoon and on Saturday afternoon will not be completely reflective of “just how hot it actually is,” as humidity values will make the air feel hotter. Heat index values will easily be in the 103-108° range with some isolated values of 110° being possible. Grab the sunscreen and keep it handy this weekend as well as we will have plenty of sunshine today and tomorrow. Cloud coverage will increase on Sunday ahead of higher rain chances Sunday P.M.

SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY… Pop-up showers and thunderstorms will provide some heat relief as we get into Sunday and Monday. It looks like the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms will happen primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid-90s with highs in the low-90s on Monday.

TROPICS: GROWING CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to suggest that the chances of a tropical storm forming in the Bay of Campeche region, in the far southern Gulf of Mexico, are increasing. NHC now has development probabilities in the 50-60% chance range. Early model guidance continues to point to this system moving northwest toward the mainland part of Mexico in areas south of Texas. Some impacts may potentially be possible in parts of south Texas under some scenarios, but we note the bulk of the model guidance shows the developing system likely moving onshore in Mexico, thus limiting MOST impacts in the U.S. Direct local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected, regardless of if formal development happens.

TROPICS: CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN CARIBBEAN OR GULF IN 10 OR SO DAYS… You won’t see this mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook and I intentionally did not discuss this in the morning video as this possibility is still 7-10 days out. The major global weather models have latched onto the idea of a tropical storm developing in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf in about 7-10 days. Note that this would be a separate, distinct system from the previously discussed system. It is far too early to give any concrete details about this system or where it ultimately ends up. Model guidance has trended more toward a solution that would bring impacts to parts of Louisiana and/or Texas in about 7-10 days, but that is highly subject to change. It is something to watch as we get closer but nothing to worry about for now. I include this paragraph specifically as “an early heads up” as you may begin to see social media posts about this system as early as this weekend. Again, nothing to worry about for now.

TROPICS: LOW-END CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT EAST OF CAROLINAS IN ATLANTIC… The area of low pressure responsible for bringing buckets and buckets of rain (upwards of 20+ inches of total rainfall) in parts of south Florida has moved into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This system will continue to move northeast and ultimately out to sea over the next day or so. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a low-end (10%) chance of this system briefly becoming a named tropical storm before the system becomes extratropical in nature. Regardless of if formal development happens, direct local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Friday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great weekend!

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6:28AM June 14, 2024

HOT WEEKEND; TEMPS NEAR 100° LIKELY… H-O-T temperatures are slated to happen this afternoon and again on Saturday afternoon. Some locales across the region will probably hit the 100 degree mark today and tomorrow.

Rain chances remain quite low today and Saturday ahead of slightly higher rain chances on Sunday.

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8:07PM June 13, 2024

HOT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; NO TROPICAL ISSUES LOCALLY THRU WEEKEND… The hottest temperatures of the year so far are set to happen tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday with air temperatures in the 97-100° range with heat index values as high as 107-108° being possible. Rain chances will remain quite low on Friday and Saturday ahead of an uptick in the scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

TROPICAL UPDATE… An area of disturbed weather is expected to develop in the Bay of Campeche region in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday. The National Hurricane Center indicates this developing area of low pressure has a 40% chance of becoming a named tropical storm next week. Model guidance shows movement toward the coast of Mexico, likely as a tropical storm, during the middle part of the upcoming week. Direct local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida from this developing system are unlikely. A separate area of disturbed weather is happening in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, now northeast of the Florida Peninsula, that is not expected to be a significant issue for the U.S. We’re also looking at some early model guidance that suggests a tropical storm may be possible in the western Gulf in about 2 weeks, but it is FAR too early for any specific information. Big takeaway here… No tropical issues for south Alabama or northwest Florida this weekend or into early next week. Good news!

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

I will have a full rundown about the high temperatures expected this weekend and a detailed tropical update in the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Thursday evening!

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