Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Tuscaloosa County in AL until 3:30pm.
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) February 23, 2019
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Tuscaloosa County in AL until 3:30pm.
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) February 23, 2019
ISOLATED STORMS FIRING UP LOCALLY… Small, isolated showers and thunderstorms are popping up this afternoon across south Alabama and northwest Florida. As of 2:31PM, the heaviest rain in our local area is happening near Pineview, Sardine, Magnolia Branch, Barnett Crossroads, Repton, and Range. Small showers are also happening across much of Monroe and Washington counties. It is important for me to stress that the severe weather risk for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains VERY LOW. The issues are likely well to our north across the northern halves of Alabama and Mississippi.
WHAT TO EXPECT – NEXT FEW HOURS… More rain and the occasional thunderstorm will continue to pop up across the local area, particularly across inland counties. Temperatures are peaking in the 80s today as a warm, unstable airmass remains in place. Most of the Mardi Gras parades this evening across coastal Alabama will be DRY with temperatures in the 70s.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK TONIGHT… Clearly, the significant weather issues are most likely to happen well to the north of our local area today. There could be a strong storm or two this evening (between 8PM and 2AM Sunday) as a decaying line of storms moves in from the northwest. The latest convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center continues to show vast majority of our area in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone, meaning that only isolated strong storms are expected. The tornado risk for our local area is very low, but it’s not zero for areas along and west of Interstate 65.
UPDATES CONTINUE THIS EVENING… I’ll have plenty more updates over the next several hours here in the RedZone Weather app. Don’t forget to use the REFRESH button (lower left corner of RZW app) to check for the latest updates.
Tornado Watch may be issued in the next hour for west Alabama as strong storms are developing and moving NNE. Note that these storms are the "appetizer," with the "entree" (main storms) likely later this evening. Watching radar trends carefully… pic.twitter.com/T2MAO3ICFB
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) February 23, 2019
CAPE/instability is often the limiting factor in the winter season when the Deep South has severe weather events. "High shear, low CAPE" is the norm this time of year. Today features very high (already 2,500+ j/kg) CAPE values moving into MS (and eventually NW Alabama). pic.twitter.com/bAjpJV82EE
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) February 23, 2019
If you're in west Alabama (Tuscaloosa, Demopolis, Livingston, Hamilton, Jasper, surrounding areas), this applies to you. Severe weather risk will gradually ramp up over the next few hours. https://t.co/nvGjYk4W0A
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) February 23, 2019