ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TODAY; RISK OF FLASH FLOODING… The Storm Prediction Center continues to outline much of west Alabama in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal severe weather risk valid for today, meaning damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes could happen in any of the stronger storms that develop. We’re also concerned about the growing potential for flash flooding issues across west Alabama, where 2-4” of rain could happen in isolated spots where training storms move over the same area. For MOST of us today across the region, we’ll have intermittent rain with occasional thunder. High temperatures will peak in the mid-70s today now that our entire area is in the warm sector south of a warm front. Several more days of rain and storms are ahead. Let’s look at details…

LEVEL 1 RISK TODAY FOR WEST ALABAMA… Parts of Clarke, Monroe, Washington, Mobile, Marengo, Choctaw, Wilcox, and Sumter counties in the western part of Alabama have a low-end risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Monroeville, Beatrice, Camden, Pine Hill, Sweet Water, Butler, Toxey, Silas, Pennington, Gilbertown, Millry, Chatom, Leroy, Deer Park, and McIntosh are the communities involved in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk today. Vast majority of us in south Alabama and northwest Florida are not included in a formal severe weather risk zone, but are included in the “general thunderstorms” zone. This means that thunderstorms are possible but the severe weather risk is much lower. Brewton, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Fairhope, Mobile, Pensacola, Milton, Destin are included in the general thunderstorms zone.

MAIN CONCERN: HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING… The main concern, even in west Alabama where the low-end, formal severe weather risk zone is in place, will be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. The concern is that we will have a linear storm system (QLCS/squall line) approach the western part of our area (Choctaw, Washington, Clarke counties) and stall out. This could potentially cause rain amounts to spike to excessive values and lead to flash flooding. We note the Weather Prediction Center has placed these areas in their slight/enhanced risk zone to potentially have flash flooding and excessive rainfall today. If you have interests in west Alabama today, be prepared for the potential for flash flooding and potential road issues, depending on just how much rainfall happens in a given location.

STORM TIMING TODAY… Rain is likely throughout the day across the region, so you’ll need to keep the rain gear handy at all times. The low-end severe weather risk will happen over west Alabama from 10AM to 6PM, although we note that a few stronger storms could happen earlier than that timeframe as well. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected for areas to the east of the Alabama River.

MUCH WARMER TODAY & TONIGHT… Now that the entirety of our local area is south of the warm front that moved across our region late on Tuesday, temperatures are headed UP. Most spots will peak in the mid- to upper-70s today with overnight lows on Thursday morning being in the 60s due to all of the cloud cover.

MORE RAIN & STORMS ON THURSDAY… While the better dynamic support for strong storms will be well to the north of our area, we will still have a good bit of rain and maybe a few thunderstorms in place across the region on Thursday. Keep the rain gear handy! High temperatures will rise to the upper-70s in most spots.

DRIER FRIDAY & SATURDAY… Some of the warmest temperatures of 2019 so far will happen during the first half of the weekend. High temperatures will soar into the low-80s. Rain chances will not be zero, but they will be much lower by Friday. We finally get a few breaks in the clouds on Friday with some peeks of sunshine each day.

MORE STORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY… There will be a chance of tornadoes and supercell thunderstorms across parts of northwest Mississippi, Arkansas, and northern Louisiana on Saturday into the evening hours. We still have more questions than answers at this point as to just how potent this storm system will be as it approaches our area. If any severe weather happens in Alabama associated with this system, it will likely be to our north. That is based on the latest model guidance. I’ll keep watching trends carefully and bring you the latest info in the RedZone Weather app about this system. For now, we’ll call for a decaying line of storms to push into our region late Saturday into early Sunday. This means Sunday morning has the potential to be quite wet across the region.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy the day!

SPRINKLES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT… Small areas of sprinkles continue across southwest Alabama, primarily across inland counties. Rain coverage will increase slightly in the overnight hours and through dawn. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous after sunrise.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… We’ll need to watch storms carefully on Wednesday as there will be a low-end risk of isolated tornadoes and damaging winds mainly for areas along and west of the Alabama River on Wednesday. There also will be a risk of flash flooding over west Alabama where rain amounts could easily climb to the 2-5″ range very quickly if storms train over the same areas. Be “weather aware” on Wednesday and have a way to receive urgent weather warnings! That’s the summary, here are the details…

LEVEL 1 RISK: WHO IS INVOLVED… Much of west and central Alabama in addition to southeast Mississippi and eastern Louisiana are included in the Storm Prediction Center’s Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk. Locally, the following communities are involved: Monroeville, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, Millry, Vinegar Bend, St. Stephens, Sunflower, Fruitdale, Coffeeville, Beatrice, Vredenburgh, Uriah, Megargal, Goodway, Tensaw, Citronelle, Calvert, and Wilmer. We also note that several areas in central Alabama are included: Birmingham, Hoover, Tuscaloosa, Centreville, Demopolis, Montgomery, Alex City, Clanton, Prattville, Selma, Butler, Gilbertown, Silas, Toxey, Marion, Eutaw, Aliceville, and Livingston.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be the number one concern. This likely won’t be a situation that features many tornadoes or wide swaths of significant damage, however marginal risk zones are not something to take lightly as multiple tornadoes and multiple areas of damaging wind areas can happen. Again, you’ll need to have a way to get warnings in case there is a threat of a tornado.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Strong storms will be MOST likely from 10AM to 4PM across west Alabama. That’s the core timeframe. Rain and storms will be possible all day. More intermittent rain is expected on Wednesday night into Thursday. The severe weather risk should be complete over by 8PM as the better dynamic support will be long gone to the northeast.

APP ALERTS… Once you have the RZW app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… Let me know if you have specific questions. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday. Be sure to check back with me then for the latest on this developing severe weather potential. Have a wonderful evening!