1PM TUESDAY: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN… The 1PM CDT advisory for Tropical Storm Dorian has just been issued. The most significant change to report this afternoon is that the center of Dorian has reformed a bit farther to the north than previous estimates. Because of this, I expect the overall cone of uncertainty to shift a bit to the right/north in the 4PM CDT advisory/track update. This significantly increases the chance that Dorian will make landfall and move directly across Puerto Rico on Wednesday. This also means that land interaction with Hispaniola may not have a large effect on the overall structure of Dorian. It remains to be seen whether the terrain of Puerto Rico will have a significant effect on Dorian.

POTENTIAL U.S. IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND… Confidence in the overall projected path of Dorian has been pretty good so far, while confidence in future intensity has been highly subpar. I expect confidence in intensity to resolve somewhat by Thursday morning after Dorian interacts with the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola). Confidence IS increasing that a landfall along the Atlantic coast of Florida may happen this weekend into early next week, although it is too early to know specifics. Interests from the Florida Keys northward to Savannah, Georgia, including Miami, West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Melbourne, Palm Bay, the Space Coast, Daytona Beach, St. Augustine, and Jacksonville should closely monitor the progress of Dorian.

GULF IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN… While confidence is growing that a Florida landfall along the Atlantic coast seems possible, we still don’t have a firm grip of what will happen to Dorian in about a week. It is still too early to completely rule out a system that crosses Florida and enters the Gulf of Mexico, although model trends have been encouraging in lessening the possibility of that particular scenario. We all need to closely monitor Dorian over the next few days. Be sure to check back with me for updates later today into this evening and over the next few days.

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