DORIAN TAKES AIM AT PUERTO RICO; MORE STORMS LOCALLY TODAY; FOOTBALL FORECAST… Tropical Storm Dorian continues to be our main focus this morning as the system has a growing chance of potentially impacting parts of the United States in about a week. While it is too early to know the specifics of U.S. impacts, all model indications at the moment point to potential impacts for the eastern side of the Florida Peninsula (NOT the Florida Panhandle, which is our local area, but rather the peninsula of Florida near Miami, West Palm Beach, up to the space coast of Cape Canaveral, and Jacksonville). It is critical to note that this idea is subject to major changes in the days ahead. There is a chance Dorian could be a formidable hurricane in 5 days. There is also a chance the system gets completely ripped apart by the high terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Let’s look at your Tuesday morning weather details…
NUMEROUS STORMS AROUND TODAY… While we won’t have AS many showers and thunderstorms across our region compared to yesterday, we will have scattered to numerous storms in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will be most numerous between 11AM and 5PM. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but heavy downpours of rain are likely at times. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s.
SCATTERED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY… Another round of storms will happen during the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday before we get a bout of drier weather on Thursday into Friday. High temperatures Wednesday will rise into the low-90s.
DRIER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY… Friday morning is going to be quite nice for a late August day. Most spots will start in the 64-67° range with slightly lower humidity. It’s all because of a frontal boundary that will slide to our south late Wednesday into Thursday. I expect a sunny day on Thursday with little to NO rain issues. A few showers and storms may happen Friday before more storms this weekend.
DORIAN MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES… Tropical Storm Dorian is near Barbados this morning. The center of circulation continues to move west-northwestward and will enter the eastern Caribbean Sea later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph.
DORIAN: LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… No one (and again, NO ONE) knows whether Gulf Coast impacts will happen because of Tropical Storm Dorian just yet. It is noteworthy that many more models are now flirting with the idea that Dorian may cross the Florida Peninsula and enter the Gulf of Mexico in 6-7 days. Is that a certainty? No, nowhere close, but again that idea is on the table at this point. So much will depend on the future strength and size of the system, and unfortunately we don’t have a good grip on that info until after Dorian passes or crosses Hispaniola and/or Puerto Rico in 2-3 days. I would encourage everyone reading this to check back with me multiple times daily over the next several days for the latest information. I hope we’re able to get more information that will completely rule out local impacts, but that has not been the trend so far today. We’ll keep you posted in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
DORIAN: PROJECTED PATH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH; INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY LOW… There is high confidence that Tropical Storm Dorian will continue moving in a west-northwest or northwesterly fashion in the days ahead. That puts Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic in the crosshairs from what could be a category 1 hurricane. As we discussed in detail in this morning’s forecast video, so much of the long range forecast depends on what happens in the short range. I mentioned this morning that if Dorian skirts along the northern periphery of the cone of uncertainty, the system may be stronger. That has been reflected in the forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center today. The cone of uncertainty has been adjusted slightly to the right/north. This means the system will be in a more conducive environment as it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea with less atmospheric shear. It’s also notable that the latest cone of uncertainty shows the center line missing or nearly missing the land interaction with Hispaniola. That means the core of Dorian MAY be largely intact when it emerges over the southwestern Atlantic. The big takeaway here is that we still don’t know exactly how strong or weak Dorian will be when it gets into the Atlantic and potentially takes aim at southern Florida. Hispaniola may break the system apart completely, but trends today have pointed to the system perhaps being a bit stronger as it marches northwest.
DORIAN: HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA; TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO… St. Lucia is under a Hurricane Watch this morning as there is a potential for Dorian to ramp up to hurricane status before crossing the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominica, Grenada, and Saba & St. Eustatius. Those are some of the smaller islands in the Lesser Antilles. The entirety of Puerto Rico is also under a Tropical Storm Watch. I wouldn’t be shocked if a Hurricane Watch is needed for Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic on Tuesday. If Dorian survives and the current forecast verifies, Hurricane Watches may be needed for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida by Thursday or Friday.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX… T.D. Six is located about halfway between Bermuda and the Carolina coastline in the Atlantic Ocean. The system will likely become Tropical Storm Erin in the days ahead as it gradually then rapidly lifts northeast away from land areas. There is a chance that TD6/Erin could make landfall in Canada in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. Significant direct local impacts in Alabama or Florida are not expected.
FIRST LOOK: HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football will be in full swing this Friday at 7PM across south Alabama and northwest Florida. There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms around (20-30% chance of rain from 6PM to 9PM on Friday) but I expect vast majority of the games across our region to be dry. Temperatures at 7PM will be around 84°, falling to 78° by 9PM.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECAST… Long-time viewers and readers know that I try to provide football forecasts each week since we have so many people in our local area that like college football. I truly am just about as close to neutral as you can get when it comes to football loyalty around here… I grew up as an Auburn fan, but the price was right at The University of Alabama, so now I truly do love both schools. We’ll try to sneak in some football football forecasts when we can. See the first one below.
ALABAMA VS. DUKE IN ATLANTA… Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide will battle the Duke Blue Devils inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia this Saturday at 2:30PM CDT. High temperatures in Atlanta around kickoff time will be around 91° with partly cloudy skies in place. Low (10-20%) rain chances mean it should be a nice, hot day for folks headed to the game.
AUBURN VS. OREGON IN DALLAS… The Auburn Tigers kick off against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday at 6:30PM CDT with a primetime slot on local ABC stations. The game will be inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (Dallas). Low (10-20%) rain chances with kickoff temperatures near 87° are expected.
TROY VS. CAMPBELL IN TROY… Troy kicks off its football season at home against Campbell on Saturday at 5PM CDT. You can watch the game online on ESPN+. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be around in the afternoon and evening hours, but there is a good chance that game time will be dry. 30-40% chance of rain in Troy with high temperatures on Saturday near 91°. Plenty of humidity in place! Kickoff temperatures will be around 86°.
SOUTH ALABAMA AT NEBRASKA IN LINCOLN… The South Alabama Jaguars travel to Lincoln, Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers. The game kicks off at 11AM CDT Saturday on ESPN. There will be scattered showers around during that timeframe in Lincoln. We’ll call it a 30-40% chance of rain with game time temperatures near 70°.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Social networks don’t guarantee that you will see our forecast content or urgent warnings. That is why we have the RZW app available for you. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me. We encourage everyone to turn on “Medium-Level Alerts.” If you like a lot of notifications, turn on Low-Level Alerts too.
See all the graphics, details, and latest on Dorian in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!
