DORIAN STRENGTHENS; HEAVY RAIN & STORMS LOCALLY TODAY… Rain and thunderstorms are set to continue throughout the day on this Monday. These showers and thunderstorms are happening due to an eastward-advancing area of low pressure moving in from Mississippi and Louisiana. Widespread severe weather is not expected today, but there will be multiple areas of rain and thunderstorms that happen across the region today. Flash flooding could become a concern in isolated areas across our region today if storms train over the same areas for an extended period of time. We also continue to watch the two systems in the tropics: Tropical Storm Dorian and INVEST 98L. Let’s look at details…
NUMEROUS SHOWERS & STORMS TODAY… Keep the rain jackets close by today as we will have rain around pretty much all day. Areas of rain and storms will be numerous through 7PM tonight. I expect rain coverage to decrease somewhat after sunset. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-80s in most spots due to the increased amount of cloud coverage and showers around.
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY… The entirety of our local area is under a Level 2 slight risk of flash flooding today due to the potential for extended periods of heavy rain. Rain amounts will be in the 1 to 3 inch range in total for most spots across our region today. This will be a good soaking rain for most locales. The concern, however, is that we may get too much rain in some spots in a very short period of time. If your specific area happens to go under a flash flood warning today, please do not drive over water-covered roadways. We lose far too many people across America each year due to this totally preventable cause of death. “Turn around, don’t drown” is the phrase.
MORE RAIN & STORMS AROUND ON TUESDAY… Another round of showers and thunderstorms will happen Tuesday, primarily in the afternoon hours. Heavy rain will again be a concern. We return to more seasonal rain chances on Wednesday.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY & FRIDAY… Overnight lows on Friday morning could be in the mid-60s after the passage of a frontal boundary. Thursday and Friday look to be dry, sunny, and warm with high temperatures in the low-90s. The difference is we’ll have lower humidity values in place thanks to the passage of the cold front to our south. This will only be a brief drier 48 hours as showers and thunderstorms return on Saturday into Sunday.
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN MOVING TOWARD LESSER ANTILLES… Tropical Storm Dorian gained strength on Sunday evening with multiple bursts of convection noted on the infrared satellite imagery. The National Hurricane Center says maximum sustained winds are at 50mph near the center of Dorian. This remains a small system, with tropical storm force winds extending approximately 40 miles outward from the center. Global weather models are having somewhat of a difficult time pinpointing specifics on Dorian because of the small size of the system.
DORIAN: TROPICAL STORM WATCHES EXPANDED FOR THE ANTILLES… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Dominica, Martinique, and Grenada. There almost certainly will be tropical storm impacts due to Dorian for parts of the Lesser Antilles in the next 48 hours. The bigger question marks are in 4-5 days when Dorian arrives near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
DORIAN: PROJECTED PATH SHOWS NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT… There is good model agreement in an idea of the future track of Dorian over the next 3-4 days. Because of the lack of confidence in the intensity forecast, however, there is VERY little confidence in the forecast beyond 4 days out. If Dorian moves farther south on the southern side of the cone of uncertainty, there is a higher chance of the system completely dissipating due to high amounts of atmospheric shear. If the system ends up farther north and becomes a bit stronger over the next day or two, there is a higher chance Dorian survives the potential land interactions with Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola and can move onward toward The Bahamas or even the United States. I have a suspicion we will have a much better handle on the future of Dorian and if U.S. impacts will happen by Wednesday morning.
DORIAN: LONG RANGE IDEAS… There is a chance that Tropical Storm Dorian makes a run at the Gulf of Mexico in about a week. There is also a chance that Dorian either gets ripped apart by atmospheric shear in the eastern Caribbean Sea or ripped apart or weakens substantially due to the high terrain of Hispaniola. It’s impossible to know when and where this system will end up. I’ll have updates posted over the next few days.
DORIAN: DON’T TRUST SPAGHETTI PLOTS WITHOUT CONTEXT… It’s incredibly unhelpful to have so many (terrible) model/spaghetti plot images floating around social media these days without any context. I saw an image last evening showing a line/model bringing Dorian right up the pike to our local area. Could that happen? Yes. Are the odds of that happening medium or high at this point? NO. We simply don’t have the scientific basis to be able to predict where tropical storms and hurricanes will go beyond 5 days out. There is simply too much uncertainty.
INVEST 98L ON THE WAY OUT… The chance of INVEST 98L developing into a tropical storm are near 80%, although the system is centered well east of the Georgia and South Carolina coast in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. This system is moving northeast, away from any land areas. Regardless of if formal development happens, major U.S. impacts are not expected.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the graphics and details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a great start to your week!
