SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY… Tuesday could feature strong to severe thunderstorms with a chance of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for just about all areas in south Alabama and northwest Florida, minus a few communities right on the Alabama-Mississippi state line. Storms will be most likely to happen during the daytime hours of Tuesday, although we are advising everyone to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings before you go to sleep tonight just in case we have early morning storm activity. Before we get to Tuesday, warm and dry conditions are expected on this Monday. High temperatures will peak in the mid-80s today. Cooler temperatures are on the way as we have a cold front set to move by on Tuesday evening. Highs on Wednesday will drop into the mid-70s. Below are all of your forecast details.
ANOTHER WARM DAY; DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON… High temperatures today will peak in the 83-87° range across inland areas of south Alabama with temperatures closer to 80° closer to the immediate coast. Mostly cloudy skies are likely throughout the day.
FEW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING… Rain chances remain very low for ALL of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida through midnight. There could be a few showers (only a 10-20% chance) over west Alabama in parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Mobile, and Marengo counties as early as 8PM. I expect much of the rain to hold off until Tuesday, however.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center continues to advise that all of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. This morning we have some new data that suggests the damaging wind potential may be the greatest threat, but there will be at least some risk of a few tornadoes as well. Large hail up to the size of golf balls may also be possible in some of the storms.
TUESDAY – SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… 6AM to 4PM is the ten hour window in which strong to severe storms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida, with the core risk being from 9AM to 2PM. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to receive urgent weather warnings before you go to sleep on Monday night just in case isolated storms get an early start.
LEVEL 2 RISK – LOCATIONS INVOLVED… Nearly all of us in south Alabama and northwest Florida are involved. Basically a line from Columbus (Georgia) to Montgomery to Selma to Chatom and points south to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches are included. ALL parts of these counties are included in the risk zone: Monroe, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Butler, Wilcox, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, in addition to all counties in southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. In addition, parts of Mobile, Clarke, and Washington counties in west Alabama are included in the risk zone, including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Jackson, Grove Hill, and Thomasville.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR LOCAL AREA… When a Level 2 (out of 5) risk is in place, that means that scattered instances of severe thunderstorms are possible, including the potential for isolated intense thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. MOST times when we have a Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk in place, we simply do not have major issues. There have been times, however, when big issues have happened on Level 2-type days. Take the Century-Flomaton EF3 tornado that happened on February 15, 2016. That was a Level 2 risk day. That is certainly not the NORM for a Level 2 risk day, but it just goes to show that intense thunderstorms CAN happen.
COVID-19 AND TORNADO WARNING GUIDELINES… We’re in a strange time when the guidelines on what to do during a tornado warning versus what to do regarding social distancing because of COVID-19 may seem to conflict. If you, your family, or your friends use a community underground storm shelter, please take the opportunity to read the recommended guidelines established by our local National Weather Service offices and the state health department. Basically, the tornado warning takes precedence over social distancing when/if necessary as the tornado is the more immediate threat. Here is the post outlining all of those details.
COOLER, DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT… The reason we have a chance of severe storms on Tuesday is partly because of the forcing caused by the advancing cold front that will be moving into our area on Tuesday evening. This front will bring cooler, drier air into our region by Tuesday night.
BETTER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY… Nicer, slightly cooler, and drier conditions will be in place for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will drop into the mid-70s by Wednesday with overnight lows falling into the mid- to upper-50s. Mostly sunny skies are likely Wednesday with partly cloudy skies on Thursday.
MORE RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… There could be a few showers ahead of an area of low pressure inching closer to our area on Friday. Rain chances will rise as we go into next weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. It is too early to talk specifics on that system, but it is late March and early April (heart of severe weather season!), meaning we need to watch this system closely. I’ll have more details about this once we get through the active weather on Tuesday.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
CARDS FOR THE ELDERLY… Please don’t forget to take advantage of our new RedZone Weather Cards for the Elderly program. We want to be able to safely send as many encouraging cards as possible to our local senior adults in nursing homes. Be sure to visit the link below for all the information. This is an opportunity for students and adults across our region to write encouraging notes to elderly people currently under lockdown in local nursing homes due to the ongoing COVID-19 situation. Here is the link.
Let me know if you have any specific weather-related questions. Have a great Monday!
