TROPICAL STORM GONZALO STRENGTHENING… Tropical Storm Gonzalo, currently organizing in the central Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles, will be a storm for us to keep a close eye on over the next several days. As of Noon on Wednesday, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to what will ultimately happen with Gonzalo. Some global models fade the system out entirely as it moves over less favorable atmospheric conditions in the Caribbean Sea next week. Other scenarios point to a hurricane that will weaken some, but not fade away entirely. A few Wednesday afternoon forecast notes are below…

UPDATE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF… The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate there is a 40-50% chance of a tropical storm in the western Gulf over the next 2-3 days. Note this is a totally different system from Tropical Storm Gonzalo. Right now, an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing numerous storms across the central Gulf. Regardless of if formal development happens, this system won’t directly affect Alabama or northwest Florida other than producing high waves and rip currents at local beaches. This system will be a rainmaker for parts of Texas and Louisiana this weekend. If it forms into a tropical storm before landfall, it will take the name “Hanna.”

NO IMMINENT ISSUES FROM GONZALO… Let me be clear in stating that there will be no impacts from Tropical Storm Gonzalo for the U.S. anytime soon. This is a tropical storm that is well over 2,000 miles away from the U.S. IF we have impacts in the United States from Gonzalo (still a BIG IF at this point), we’re looking at that possibility in 9-12 days from now. Regardless of what happens, plenty of time to prepare and plenty of time for the system to fade away or significantly change in structure.

FORECAST FOR GONZALO: MOVE WEST… Tropical Storm Gonzalo is forecast to continue to move west toward the southern flank of the Lesser Antilles near Barbados and Trinidad & Tobago. The system will likely approach the Antilles as a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane this weekend. Once Gonzalo moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea, drier air and atmospheric shear are expected to disrupt the system. The big question here is how much disruption can happen? Hopefully quite a bit, but we just don’t know for sure just yet. Regardless, I’ll keep my eyes on this system in the days ahead and bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.

Have a great Wednesday evening!

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