SCATTERED STORMS THIS EVENING; TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO GULF… Pop-up thunderstorms are firing this evening along the seabreeze that is moving inland. Scattered downpours are drifting west today as our area remains on the southern flank of a large area of high pressure to our north. The clockwise flow around this high pressure area is causing storms to move in a westward fashion today. At the time this video is being produced (3PM), scattered downpours are happening near Citronelle, Earlville, Saraland, Satsuma, Munson, Berrydale, Crestview, Baker, Deerland, and DeFuniak Springs. More showers and thunderstorms will likely fire up over the next several hours. Severe weather is not expected today, however. Another round of rain and storms will happen on Monday, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s over the next few days with morning lows in the lower-70s. More forecast details are below.

The following info from our previous discussion earlier this afternoon remains on point. I’ll have a detailed update with the latest information posted by 7:15AM on Monday on Facebook and in our free RedZone Weather app.

TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN GULF LATER THIS WEEK… There is a low-end, yet growing, chance that a tropical wave may become a tropical storm later this week as it moves northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 20% chance that a tropical storm will form in the central Gulf and potentially move toward the Texas and Louisiana coast later this week. Right now, the tropical wave is situated near the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Environmental conditions are NOT favorable for development today or tomorrow, but once the tropical wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico, upper-level winds will be a bit more favorable for development. There is a good chance, based on the latest model consistency, that impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida would be highly limited from this system regardless of if formal development happens. Below are all of the details as of Noon on Sunday…

20% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT… The National Hurricane Center now includes this tropical wave near Hispaniola in their Tropical Weather Outlook discussion. It reads: “A tropical wave located over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic is expected to move west-northwestward over the next several days and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday, and then move across the central Gulf on Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. This disturbance is currently producing disorganized shower activity, but environmental conditions are expected to become at least marginally conducive for development by Wednesday or Thursday.

IMPACTS ASSESSMENT: HEAVY RAIN FOR TEXAS & LOUISIANA… It is entirely too early to know specific local impacts for any given area. Based on current model trends being pretty consistent, however, it certainly seems like the greatest impacts from this system will likely be in Louisiana and Texas toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Heavy rain will likely be the main concern for areas near the Texas and Louisiana coast. If this scenario panned out, there could be increased rain chances near the coast across south Alabama and northwest Florida as the weekend approaches. Potential local impacts for each city/town locally would largely be limited if the current projected path verifies. I will be able to get much more specific over the next few days as more data comes in. Be sure to check back with me this week for the latest information.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday. Have a nice Sunday evening!

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