CENTER OF MARCO REFORMS FARTHER EAST; LAURA STRENGTHENS… Tropical Storm Marco will likely become a hurricane this evening as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico. Reconnaissance data from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft crew found the center of Marco significantly farther east compared to the position last evening, thus a significant forecast change has happened over the last 6 hours. Marco is now expected to be basically due south of our local area Sunday into Monday morning before taking more of a westerly jog toward the Louisiana and Texas coast. Complicating the Marco forecast Monday into Tuesday, however, will be Tropical Storm Laura. Currently a tropical storm basically right on top of the southern side of Puerto Rico, Laura is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf on Monday before potentially rapidly strengthening. The official NHC forecast calls for Laura to move toward Louisiana on Tuesday into Wednesday, but even that idea is a bit uncertain. NHC ramps Laura up to a category 1 hurricane as it crosses the Gulf before a landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf of Mexico, but there is a big question mark as to just how strong Laura will become. Upper-level winds look highly favorable for strengthening, perhaps rapid strengthening, and sea surface temperatures remain in the upper-80s in the Gulf.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS DUE TO LAURA IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… Unfortunately, the significant eastward shift in the future track of Tropical Storm Marco has caused forecast confidence to become even MORE uncertain since last evening. Right now, the current thinking is that we’ll have enhanced rain chances from Marco, followed by Laura, on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. High surf and dangerous rip currents will be a concern at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. In addition, depending on the exact future track of both Laura and Marco, isolated tornadoes may become a concern Wednesday into Thursday. In addition, IF significant forecast changes become necessary, significant wind impacts may be possible across our region. At this moment, however, we are not expecting major wind impacts. Again, that could change as we get new data in from the Hurricane Hunters, models, and the National Hurricane Center. Big message here: STAY TUNED!

FORECAST CONFIDENCE UNUSUALLY LOW… If I am being frank, this is one of the most difficult forecasting challenges I have encountered in my short 5 year career so far. There are so many intricacies in this situation in both the short- and long-term with two tropical systems approaching the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, forecast confidence in both the future tracks and intensity guidance for Laura and Marco remain very low. Thus, it remains critical that we all continue to monitor BOTH systems and be ready for changes in the forecast. This is a PRIME example of why we vehemently encourage everyone to be ready for hurricane season in advance and not wait until the last minute to have basic supplies on hand. This is only the third time in recorded history that we will likely have two classified/named tropical storms in the Gulf at the same time, thus that should underscore the need to stay aware of changes.

LAURA & MARCO BOTH STRENGTHEN… Tropical Storm Laura is centered very near Puerto Rico early this afternoon. Maximum winds have increased to 45 mph, with the storm still rapidly moving west at 18 mph. Tropical Storm Marco has max. winds of 65 mph as of the latest 10AM advisory data. Marco will likely become a hurricane this afternoon as the system continues to move north into the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Channel.

SUPERSTORM BY COMBINING STORMS? NOPE… “Will Laura and Marco merge and become a superstorm?” I’ve seen numerous questions like this online over the last few days. The answer, of course, is NO. The Fujiwhara effect would kick in and cause the two cyclones to move around each other if they are similar in strength. What seems likely, however, is that Laura and Marco may exist simultaneously as two, distinct tropical storms in the Gulf on Monday into Tuesday. That event has happened twice before in recorded history, once in 1933 with the other instance in 1959. While the current forecasts do not indicate a “Fujiwhara effect interaction” between Tropical Storms Laura and Marco, that doesn’t mean the chances are zero. IF Laura (as a hurricane midweek) moves farther west than the current forecast track, there is a chance Laura’s circulation may push Marco to the south once it is near the Texas coast. There also is a chance Marco will be so weak that the system dissipates with lingering moisture being absorbed by Laura.

STORMS AROUND THIS EVENING… Showers and thunderstorms are popping up across the region on this Saturday. At the time I am typing this update around 12:30PM, we have storms producing localized downpours of rain near Monroeville, Atmore, Repton, Range, Tunnel Springs, Peterman, Orange Beach, and Perdido Beach. I expect more showers and thunderstorms to bubble up over the next several hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected today, but some of the storms may be on the strong (and loud!) side at times.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have another detailed update later this evening. Plenty of shorter form updates will be posted in the RZWeather app. Have a great Saturday evening!

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