FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING; COOLER TEMPS COMING TUESDAY… Rain and thunderstorms continue just to our east across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Vast majority of our local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida remains dry and warm on this Sunday evening. Temperatures are peaking in the mid-80s today ahead of much cooler temperatures set to arrive on Tuesday after a cold front passes by on Monday night. We could have a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms on Monday evening as a cold front moves by from northwest to southeast. After the storms Monday night, lingering showers are expected on Tuesday as cooler, more stable air filters in behind the passage of the cold front. Wednesday through the end of the week (and into the weekend!) look dry, sunny, and mild. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s on Monday ahead of HIGHS in the MID-70s on Monday! More good news to report: The tropics remain quiet. Let’s look at your Sunday evening forecast notes.

LOW (NOT ZERO) RAIN CHANCES ON EASTERN SIDE OF REGION TODAY… Rain and storms continue to stream in from the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon in areas just to our east in the Florida Panhandle region. There also have been a few storms in southeast Alabama near Ozark, Union Springs, Elba, and Enterprise over the last hour. We note a few localized downpours of heavy rain are happening as of 2:05PM near Florala, Lockhart, Laurel Hill, Crestview, and Geneva. This will represent the trend over the next few hours. I expect a few downpours being possible in parts of Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Covington, Crenshaw, Geneva, Coffee, Dale, Houston, Pike, and Barbour counties. Most of us across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will remain dry and warm. Temperatures are peaking in the mid-80s today.

STORMS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING… The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk for inland areas of south Alabama valid for tomorrow (Monday, September 28, 2020) as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The concern is a few stronger storms may briefly ramp up to severe levels and produce gusty winds in isolated areas. The tornado risk on Monday will remain very low, if not near zero, in most spots locally. This is not a tornado-driven risk but rather a risk of gusty winds. Showers will be possible throughout the day on Monday and into Monday night, but the core risk of heavy rain and storms will happen between 4PM and 9PM. After that time, the cold front will have cleared much of our area. I would imagine we’ll be able to give an “all clear” from this low-end severe weather risk by 10PM on Monday night.

COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS RAIN CLEARS OUT LATE IN THE DAY… Showers will linger after the passage of the storms on Monday night. Rain will be possible at times on Tuesday throughout the day. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid-70s. We dry out by Tuesday evening, setting the stage for what will likely be an extended streak of dry, mild days with cool nights.

MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS START WEDNESDAY… High temperatures are set to remain in the 70s with morning lows in the low- to mid-50s starting Wednesday. Sunny skies will be the story each day with clear nights. Certainly a nice weather pattern to look forward to after such an active weather period in the last few weeks!

TROPICS ARE QUIET… No new tropical development is expected in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or Atlantic Ocean over the next 3-5 days. Great news!

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See all the details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video… My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday. See you then!

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