ETA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE GULF BY MONDAY… Eta remains a tropical depression this evening but the system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm tonight. The raw data I have seen today has been encouraging, but we are still not completely “out of the woods” from Eta just yet. Data today has increased in suggesting Eta may simply fizzle out over the Gulf of Mexico or remain east of our local area next week. That is NOT a certainty at this point, but it definitely has been a clear trend in the model guidance over the last day or so.

NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET, BUT TRENDS WERE GOOD TODAY… We still have ample uncertainty with Eta and we simply do not know where this storm will end up. Let’s be clear about that on the front end. Based on the latest model guidance, however, there seems to be a growing chance Eta may fade away over the course of a few days next week in the central Gulf. This would seem somewhat counterintuitive at first glance, but looking at sea surface temperatures and the upper-level atmospheric environment, this very well could be a plausible scenario. The fact is, water temperatures over the northern and central Gulf are MUCH cooler than they were even one month ago. Sea surface temperatures are running in the 70s across a wide swath of the northern Gulf. In addition, it appears there will be a considerable amount of atmospheric shear in place across much of the Deep South next week. This would help to shred the system apart potentially.

THIS IS NOT AN “ALL CLEAR” JUST YET… If this hurricane season has reiterated one thing to all of us, both in the meteorological enterprise and for everyone, it is “expected the unexpected.” While the data looked encouraging today, this whole post is by NO means an “all clear.” Atmospheric conditions can and will change. Hopefully this whole mess of a system will continue to trend in the right direction and fade out next week. More updates will be posted on Saturday in the RedZone Weather app.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMANS & CUBA… There is a high chance a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning will be issued for parts of the Florida Keys or South Florida later tonight or on Saturday. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Cayman Islands and for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Friday evening! My next update will be posted by 7:15AM on Saturday.

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