GULF IMPACTS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO PTC6/FRED… While it remains too early to know the exact locations of specific impacts, it is likely that parts of Florida and perhaps even Georgia and Alabama could have impacts this weekend into next week due to what will be Tropical Storm Fred. The system that will be Fred soon is still classified as a Potential Tropical Cyclone (please see why below). That designation really does not mean much as impacts are happening now in parts of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and parts of the Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean Sea. PTC6/Fred is expected to continue to rapidly move northwest over the next few days. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Fred moving into the southeastern Gulf by Saturday, followed by a turn to the north on Sunday. A few more Tuesday evening forecast notes are below.
SPECIFIC LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – PTC6/FRED… It remains a bit too early to know if specific local impacts will happen in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Right now (as of 4PM CDT Tuesday, August 10), most forecast models show Fred moving to the east of our local area, thus putting our area on the “better”/western side of the storm. Forecast changes are possible in the days ahead, thus local impacts could become more likely over the next few days. Please check back in for more updates over the next few days. I’ll have another detailed assessment of the situation in the morning in the regularly-scheduled forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM.
CONFUSING “POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE” DESIGNATION… If you asked me one single thing in the meteorology world that I would change (if I could!) right now, it would be this terrible nomenclature of “Potential Tropical Cyclone.” This categorization is used because the system does not yet have a center of circulation in the low levels of the atmosphere. By definition, a tropical storm must have a low-level center. Tropical storm force winds ARE occurring in the eastern quadrant of the system, however. This means that when a low-level center forms later today or tonight that the system will become an official tropical storm, taking the name “Fred.” The reason the PTC designation exists is so local governments in coordination with the National Hurricane Center can issue tropical storm watches and warnings to give appropriate lead time ahead of the arrival of this storm that doesn’t yet have a low-level center. The problem with all of this technical jargon is the nomenclature/naming is extremely confusing to most people, some meteorologists included. Anytime you hear me say “Potential Tropical Cyclone,” it’s better to think of it as a tropical depression, or a step below a tropical storm.
LAND INTERACTION TO DETERMINE THE FUTURE OF PTC6/FRED… The next 24 to 48 hours will be critical in terms of knowing just how strong or just how weak Fred will be when it arrives in the southeastern Gulf this weekend. Why? Because if the center of the system travels directly over Puerto Rico and/or the Dominican Republic and/or Cuba, Fred will likely be a much weaker system when it arrives in the Gulf on Saturday. If, however, the center of the system moves a bit farther to the north of these mountainous islands, Fred is likely to be stronger, perhaps even a hurricane, when it moves into the Gulf on Saturday.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR CAREFULLY… The first area of concern due to Fred in the United States will be the Florida Keys and South Florida where impacts could begin as early as Friday and extend to early Sunday. I expect a Tropical Storm Watch or Tropical Storm Warning to be issued for the Keys probably late tomorrow (Wednesday).
COULD FRED BE A HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN GULF BY SUNDAY… Short answer, yes, that is a possibility. Some models ramp the system up to a category 2-3 hurricane, but for now, that idea remains somewhat of an outlier. The official forecast from NHC calls for the system to be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, although it would not be completely surprising to see Fred become a hurricane early next week before landfall.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a nice Tuesday evening!
