WATCHING PTC6/FRED NEAR ANTILLES; LOCALLY, P.M. STORMS… Tropical Storm Fred will likely move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. While the exact forecast track is not known just yet, model guidance has been fairly consistent in showing a system that could potentially turn north near the Florida Peninsula and move inland to the east of our local area. That would mean that our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is on the “good”/western side of the system. Forecast changes ARE possible over the next few days, however, thus it is imperative that you check back in for updates. Locally, we will be tracking a few thunderstorms that pop up this afternoon into this evening. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but some of the storms will produce loud thunder and intense lightning. A few more Tuesday morning forecast notes are below.
PTC6/FRED MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR LESSER ANTILLES… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for several of the islands of the Antilles as Tropical Storm Fred moves northwest. This Tropical Storm Warning includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This morning, the broad center of PTC6/Fred is located very near the island of Dominica. The system will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea today before moving very near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today into Wednesday.
T.S. FRED LIKELY TO APPROACH GULF BY THIS WEEKEND… Fred, or what is left of the system, will likely approach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. The land interaction ahead of the system in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba will determine exactly how strong the system is once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. If the center of Fred manages to move to the north or south of the islands, there is a chance the storm may be a tropical storm or perhaps even a hurricane. The more likely scenario, however, is Fred weakening or holding its strength as it traverses the high terrain of Hispaniola over the next few days. Regardless of the exact setup, explosive intensification appears highly unlikely for now.
LOCAL IMPACTS UNCERTAIN… Early model indications continue to show the center of Tropical Storm Fred passing well to the east of our local area, although it remains far too early to give an “all clear” just yet. We remain early in the forecasting process. Significant model changes are not out of the realm of possibilities just yet, thus it is important we continue to closely monitor the progress of this system. For now, it is too early to know if any local impacts will happen due to Fred in south Alabama or northwest Florida.
SCATTERED POP-UP STORMS TODAY AND IN THE DAYS AHEAD… Our local weather forecast remains largely unchanged with P.M. thunderstorms likely in each of the next 5-7 days. Not every locale will have rain before the end of the day, but most probably will. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s with heat index values in the mid-100s. Morning lows will be near 73° each day.
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See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video…
