FRED LIKELY TO APPROACH FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY… Tropical Storm Fred will likely arrive along the northern Gulf Coast early next week, potentially as a strong tropical storm or a hurricane. The center of Fred is inland this evening over the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic. Several points of uncertainty remain in the forecast for Fred over the next few days (outlined extensively below). Local impacts in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida may be limited to increased rain chances early next week, depending on the exact future track of Fred. If our area continues to be on the better/western side of the storm, there is a very high chance our area would miss the core impacts. This means that communities farther east like Panama City, Dothan, Port St. Joe, Wewahitchka, Marianna, and Tallahassee could have more in the way of impacts from Fred. A few more Wednesday early evening forecast notes are below.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – TROPICAL STORM FRED… Based on the latest cone of uncertainty issued by the National Hurricane Center as of 4PM Wednesday, impacts from Fred remain possible in our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. For now, most of the model guidance shows the center of Fred passing to our east, meaning our area would be on the western side of the storm, largely mitigating any major impacts if that scenario happens.
SHOULD I CANCEL MY VACATION TO THE BEACH? NOT YET… Since so much forecast variability remains in the ultimate future track of Tropical Storm Fred, I do not advise anyone to cancel any vacation plans along the Alabama or northwest Florida beaches yet. Why? Because most scenarios point to the core of Fred passing to the east of our local area at this time. Could future forecasts put our area in more of a risk zone to see a greater amount of impacts? Yes. That’s why it is important to stay tuned for the latest information over the next few days.
QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST VARIABILITY IN THE SHORT TERM… Several questions remain concerning the ultimate fate of Fred and where the system will ultimately move. The first point of uncertainty is just how much the island of Hispaniola will affect the fragile core of Fred. There remains a chance the mountainous terrain rips the system apart and completely obliterates the low-level center of circulation. Even if this happens, a reformation of the low-level center will be possible. The next bit of uncertainty involves just how close to the Cuban coast the center of Fred will be. If Fred moves over Cuba or near the coast, the strength of the system over the next 2 days would probably be rather limited. If, however, the center of Fred is a bit farther north, there is a chance Fred could be a bit stronger as the system approaches South Florida.
EVEN MORE FORECAST VARIABILITY THIS WEEKEND… Based on the last paragraph, seeing all the variables, please understand there is even more uncertainty once we get to this weekend and early next week. The scenarios range from Fred being a hurricane approaching the Florida Panhandle to the system being a remnant area of low pressure moving north across the Florida Peninsula into Georgia. The truth of what happens probably will be in the middle of those two outlier scenarios.
FRED TO BE NEAR FLORIDA KEYS BY SATURDAY… Forecast confidence is fairly high that the center of Tropical Storm Fred will likely be near the Florida Keys and South Florida by Saturday morning. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be needed for the Keys and parts of the western coast of Florida as early as tomorrow. Interests in the Florida Keys, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, the Everglades, and Ft. Myers should closely monitor the progress of Fred over the next few days.
FRED HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO STALL; NOT A SALLY REPEAT… One bit of forecast confidence this evening is that Fred is NOT expected to stall out or slow down. The steering currents driving Fred are a subtropical ridge of high pressure to the north over the Atlantic Ocean and a weakening upper-level low pressure area moving into the Gulf. These features point to Fred not lollygagging around any particular area for too long. Fred will be a rainmaker, but probably won’t be a major flooding event for many (if any) areas. Tropical Storm Fred exists in a totally different environment than what happened last year with Hurricane Sally. The system will be a quick mover, most likely.
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I will have more updates over the next several hours posted in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Wednesday evening!
