WEAK FRED BARELY HANGING ON; PROJECTED PATH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST… Fred is barely holding on to its status as a tropical depression as of 5PM. The system is a weak swirl of clouds located just north of the Cuban coastline. This means advisories may be stopped later tonight, unless the system starts showing a bit of strength. Regardless of if Fred dies out in the interim, the system may strengthen yet again this weekend in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest projected path from the National Hurricane Center continues to show movement northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, with a likely arrival of Fred along the Florida Panhandle coast by late Sunday or early Monday. This means that our area in south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely be on the better/western side of the circulation center, IF this forecast verifies. The projected path of Fred has shifted west slightly from previous advisories. The cone of uncertainty showing where the center of Fred may move extends from Bayou La Batre, AL on the west to Cedar Key, FL on the east. Landfall is likely on Sunday night or Monday morning in the Florida Panhandle. A few more Thursday evening forecast notes are below.
LOCAL IMPACTS UPDATE – FRED… No real change in the forecast since the update posted this morning: Based on the latest cone of uncertainty issued by the National Hurricane Center as of 5PM Thursday, impacts from Fred remain possible, but unlikely for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. For now, most of the model guidance shows the center of Fred passing to our east, meaning our area would be on the western side of the storm, largely mitigating any major impacts if that scenario happens. Further forecast adjustments may be possible in the days ahead.
FRED MAY DEGENERATE (TEMPORARILY) – COULD STRENGTHEN IN GULF… There is a real possibility that the National Hurricane Center may choose to stop issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fred and call the system a remnant low pressure area unless the system begins to show signs of organization over the next few hours. The highest wind gusts are probably around 30 mph in some distant thunderstorms from the swirl of clouds that is currently Fred. If this happens, there is a chance Fred never reorganizes. There is also a chance Fred remains weak for the next few days before moving into the Gulf of Mexico and restrengthening.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA KEYS & SOUTH FLORIDA… Regardless of the intensity of Fred, the depression (or what is left of it) is expected to be centered near the Florida Keys by Saturday morning. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, and for the southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay.
FRED IMPACTS LIKELY IN SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY… Heavy rain and breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are likely at times in South Florida on Saturday as Fred, or the remnant system, passes by. This includes places like Ft. Myers, the Everglades, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, Naples, and Marco Island.
LANDFALL OF FRED (OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT) LIKELY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY… The National Hurricane Center calls for a Florida Panhandle landfall of Fred as a tropical storm on Sunday night or Monday near Apalachicola, St. George Island, Carrabelle, and Sopchoppy. Most of the rain and thunderstorm activity associated with Fred will happen to the east of the center, over parts of the Florida Peninsula and Georgia. Since Fred is expected to be a highly sheared system, this means much of Alabama will likely be on the dry side of the counterclockwise circulation.
LOCALLY, RAIN & STORMS CONTINUE… Much of our local area had a good soaking rain over the last several hours. Storms started this morning around the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches and marched inland along the sea breeze today. Heavy rain continues at 4PM in parts of Clarke, Monroe, and Washington counties in west Alabama. A few more storms may bubble up over the next few hours. Another round of rain and storms is likely at times on Friday.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted throughout the evening in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice evening!
