FRED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN & TORNADO RISK… Heavy rain at times, gusty winds near the immediate beaches, rip currents, and perhaps even a few tornadoes will be possible Monday into early Tuesday as Fred, or what is left of the system, moves north across our region. As of the 10AM Saturday advisory, Fred is no longer a tropical depression. The system is a blob of clouds and a weak remnant area of low pressure. Advisories will continue to be issued in anticipation of Fred re-developing tomorrow. If you missed the news over the last 12-18 hours, the projected path for what is currently the Remnants of Fred continues to shift westward. Our local area went from having very little risk of any impacts to having a risk of all tropical-related hazards due to Fred, as a big chunk of our local area is now expected to be on the volatile, eastern side of the center of circulation associated with Fred. A specific, detailed analysis of each specific potential impact is below.
FRED DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW… While Fred has been called a tropical depression over the last 24 hours, there is a real chance the system has been an open wave or a remnant area of low pressure. The satellite appearance of the storm has been paltry and weak, at best. All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued, for now. The National Hurricane Center is expecting Fred to redevelop in the Gulf and move north toward our local area, although there IS a chance Fred may never formally redevelop. Instead, we may have a system that remains weak and still produces some of the hazards outlined below.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING… 1 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The greatest chance of seeing 3 to 4 inches of total rainfall from Fred in our specific local area will happen across northwest Florida in parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. These are the local counties where flash flooding is the most likely to happen early this week. Note that rain totals a bit farther to the east could be even higher in parts of the Florida Panhandle. Much of south Alabama and coastal Alabama are likely to receive 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
TORNADO RISK LOCALLY… I expect a limited risk of a few tornadoes to set up across much of our area, specifically in areas along and east of the center of Fred and where the center comes onshore. Most tornadoes that happen in tropical storms and hurricanes are brief, short-lived, and usually do not cause long paths of damage. The EF2, significant tornado that struck East Brewton, Brewton, Kirkland, and Castleberry a few weeks ago on June 19 during Tropical Storm Claudette was certainly an anomaly, yet proof that significant tornadoes can and sometimes do happen in tropical situations. We encourage everyone across our local area to have a way to hear tornado warnings Monday into Tuesday. As always, if we have tornado warnings, we will go into uninterrupted live video coverage to bring you the latest information.
GUST WINDS NEAR COAST… Vast majority of south Alabama and northwest Florida will not have to contend with a widespread, damaging wind event during the passage of Fred most likely. I expect the greater wind gusts (40-50 mph) to happen near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Wind gusts of 20-40 mph may be possible inland at times.
MINOR STORM SURGE POSSIBLE… 1 to 3 feet of storm surge may be possible at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches with some minor storm surge also being possible in the local bays and inlets.
RIP CURRENTS LIKELY… The number one weather-related killer along the Gulf Coast has consistently been rip currents since 1996. Please stay out of the rough waters of the Gulf. Far too many people get into bad situations surfing and by seeking a thrill. I expect red flags and double red flags will be flying at many beach locations early next week.
The following paragraphs from previous posts remain on point and good reminders.
IMPACTS FROM FRED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER… A high likelihood exists that Fred will be a lopsided, sheared storm on Monday into Tuesday with most (if not all) of the heavy rain and thunderstorm activity located on the eastern side of the storm. Look at this situation like having one half or one side of a circle with the circle moving north. Locations to the east of the center point of the circle could have heavy rain, gusty winds (especially near the immediate beach zones), and perhaps even a few tornadoes. Coastal flooding and minor storm surge will also be potential issues along and east of this center point. The challenge in forecasting Fred up until landfall will be exactly where this center point comes onshore. Right now, the latest path from NHC shows a likely landfall point in northwest Florida.
FRED – TIMING OF IMPACTS… The main impacts from Fred locally will happen from 11AM Monday to 11AM Tuesday. That is the 24 hour window when the storm will be moving directly over our local area. Outer rain bands of Fred may begin across coastal areas of northwest Florida as early as Sunday evening. Rain will increase in coverage throughout the day on Monday, mainly in areas along and east of the center of circulation. Heavy rain will be possible at times Monday into Tuesday. A tornado risk may set up along and east of the center of Fred Monday into Tuesday.
TROPICAL STORM GRACE IN THE ATLANTIC… In addition to Fred, we’re also tracking a separate, developing storm located in the Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Grace. Tropical Depression 7 strengthened to Tropical Storm Grace earlier this morning. Grace will continue to move west toward the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Grace is expected to take a similar path to what happened with Fred.
SHOULD I CANCEL MY VACATION TO THE BEACH?… I have had several questions from folks that are coming down to our local beaches from northern states in the days ahead asking whether or not they should cancel their trip. I cannot provide a specific answer to this question as I don’t know your specific beach expectations. If you’re looking for a completely sunny week with no chance of rain, you probably wouldn’t be coming to a Gulf Coast beach this time of year as we have a rain chance just about every day. The fact is most of the time on most of the days in summer, we have plenty of sunshine. Pop-up storms are a daily part of life this time of year, however. Parts of our local area, especially near the northwest Florida beaches, may have increased rain chances on Monday, but Fred should be exiting the area Tuesday with no more imminent tropical issues in the following days.
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have more detailed updates posted in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day. Have a nice Saturday evening!
