MAJOR HURRICANE POSSIBLE IN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK; WESTERN GULF IS THE FOCUS, FOR NOW… Invest 99L, the tropical wave currently pushing west across the Caribbean Sea, is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, likely developing into a tropical storm and subsequently a hurricane. Unlike our last two tropical systems in the Gulf (Tropical Storm Fred and Hurricane Grace), there is much higher confidence this system will develop and perhaps undergo rapid intensification as it approaches landfall. The future, exact track of this system remains largely uncertain, but confidence is very high that this system will be in the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Another system, well away from land in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, may also develop into a tropical storm soon. The next tropical names on the naming list for 2021 include Ida, Julian, Kate, and Larry. More details are below.
80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 99L… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates there is a high (80+%) chance of tropical storm development in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf due to Invest 99L. In addition, and perhaps more concerning, is that NHC is using language in their Tropical Weather Outlook to already point to the danger from this developing system. “This system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form.”
LOCAL IMPACTS MAY BE POSSIBLE… While it is far too early to conclusively rule out local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida, model trends have consistently pointed to the center of this developing system being well to our west in the days ahead. Please keep in mind that even IF this system makes landfall well to our west, local impacts may be possible long after the center of the storm comes onshore. Hurricanes Delta and Zeta made landfall in southern Louisiana in 2020. Both storms ended up producing tornado warnings across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida after their respective landfalls. Being on the eastern side of a landfalling hurricane, even one that is hundreds of miles away, can be problematic for areas far away from the landfall point. Tornadoes, dangerous rip currents at local beaches, and heavy rain & flash flooding may all become possible, depending on the exact future track of this system.
CLOSELY MONITOR PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM… The swath of future paths for the center of this system currently extends from Mobile (AL) on the east to Brownsville (TX) and even northern Mexico on the west, highlighting just how much uncertainty there is concerning the exact future path of this storm. Folks in Texas and Louisiana should especially keep close tabs on this developing system. There is a real chance the system ramps up to a hurricane or even a major hurricane Sunday into early next week. NOW is the time to start thinking about your hurricane safety plan. If you live in a flood prone area, know where you would go and what you would do if evacuation orders are issued for your specific area. No need to panic or worry, but we do encourage everyone locally and in places to our west in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas to check back in for updates over the next few days.
APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next long form text discussion and detailed video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Wednesday evening!
