LOW-END TORNADO RISK NEAR COAST OVERNIGHT… Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible overnight as a weak tropical disturbance moves toward our local area from the northern Gulf of Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center now includes nearly all of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for the overnight hours. We note that the overall tornado risk remains LOW, but not zero, across areas closer to the coast. Inland areas do not have a defined tornado risk overnight.

TORNADO RISK NEAR ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES… IF (and that is a big IF) we happen to have any severe storms overnight capable of producing tornadoes, I expect that risk to be greatest across parts of Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Okaloosa, Walton, Santa Rosa and Escambia (FL) counties. Areas south of I-10 have the highest risk of tornadoes overnight, extending into Monday morning, but even in this zone, the tornado risk is LOW. Again, the risk is not zero, but it remains low areawide.

BE ABLE TO HEAR WARNINGS OVERNIGHT… While it is important to always have a way to hear urgent weather warnings, tonight is not one of those “stay up and be concerned about tornadoes” kind of nights. Could we have a tornado warning or two? Yes, that is a possibility. Any tornadoes that happen are likely to be short-lived, however. Tropical induced tornadoes typically do not last long. Looking at the overall convective environment tonight, I am not extremely concerned.

TROPICAL FEATURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO… Local radar views and infrared satellite imagery show a swirl of storms centered about 60 miles south-southwest of Gulf Shores, Alabama at the time I am typing this update around 8:15PM. This tropical disturbance is unlikely to develop into a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center flagged the system earlier today with a very low-end (10%) potential of briefly becoming a named storm before moving inland. Trends continue to suggest the system won’t have time to strengthen into a named storm, thankfully.

WHAT TO EXPECT – OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING… In short, heavy rain and thunderstorms at times. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to be possible overnight as this tropical disturbance moves onshore. Rain and storms will continue into Monday morning and there is a chance storms could be producing heavy rain during the morning commute.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Monday) morning. Have a nice Sunday evening!

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