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7:14PM June 18, 2023

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TWO MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS LIKELY; OVERNIGHT INTO MON. A.M. THEN MONDAY EVENING… It is not over yet, plain and simple. Severe thunderstorms will be possible overnight into early Monday and then AGAIN Monday afternoon into the evening hours as our insanely active weather pattern continues. Unfortunately, timing with all this is a bit uncertain as thunderstorms are expected to fire up to our west across Mississippi at some point later tonight and move into our region perhaps after midnight. Then, we get another round of thunderstorms that are expected to pop up right over our area on Monday evening that may produce very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. Let’s talk details, below.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING… Timing is highly uncertain for severe storms TONIGHT. The best I can give you is a 12 hour window when strong to severe storms may initiate near or over our area, particularly across west Alabama. 9PM tonight to 9AM Monday is when severe storms may become possible again. The damaging wind and large hail threat are the primary concerns tonight and into early Monday morning. A few tornadoes may also become possible. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk for our local area tonight into early Monday.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING… Supercell thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will become possible on Monday afternoon and evening. The core timeframe for this looks to be from 1PM to 9PM. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for our local area valid for Monday in the late morning, afternoon, and evening hours. Flash flooding will also be a concern as heavy rain will be happening over very saturated soil across our region.

SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT FOR CENTRAL & NORTH AL TONIGHT… Model guidance has been quite consistent in suggesting a potential MCS (mesoscale convective system) moving across the northern half of Alabama in the overnight hours into early Monday morning. This system will likely be capable of producing a widespread damaging wind event, a few tornadoes, and large hail. Heads up for folks in Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Selma, Demopolis, Clanton, Jasper, Cullman, Anniston, Gadsden, Alexander City, Livingston, and surrounding areas. Severe weather possible in these zones overnight into Monday morning.

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES; 3-5″ OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AHEAD… The National Weather Service maintains a Flood Watch for ALL local counties in south Alabama and northwest Florida. 3 to 5 inches of *additional* rainfall will be possible over the next 5 days. Flash flooding will quickly become possible if thunderstorms train over the same areas.

TWO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES; 90% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN ATLANTIC… As if we did not have enough going on, the National Hurricane Center is now watching not one, but two tropical waves in the open waters of the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean. The leading tropical wave, approaching the halfway mark between Africa and the Lesser Antilles has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days while pushing westward toward the Lesser Antilles. It is a bit too early to know if U.S. impacts will be possible from this system. Some weather models strengthen the system to hurricane status while turning it north toward Bermuda or the open Atlantic Ocean while others seem to keep the system weaker while moving west through the Caribbean Sea. Nothing to worry about for now, but it is something to be aware of over the next several days. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are currently quiet.

ANOTHER RECORD SET FOR CONSECUTIVE TORNADO WARNING DAYS… After setting a record yesterday, today we broke THAT record. Today marks four consecutive days with tornado warnings across our local area. An EF2 tornado hit Pensacola around 8:30PM on Thursday, June 15. A Tornado Warning was issued for Loxley and Robertsdale on Friday, June 16. An EF0 tornado struck Irvington, AL in southern Mobile County around 12:30AM Saturday, June 17. This morning (Sunday, June 18) we had damaging winds and an apparent tornado in/near Milton, FL. The craziest thing to all this is that we have a potential for tornadoes on Monday as well, potentially making it 5 consecutive days!

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I will have your next detailed video posted by 7:15AM unless severe weather coverage becomes necessary before that. Many more updates will be posted overnight in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Sunday evening!

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