The projected radar off the HRRR has another significant cluster of thunderstorms moving into south Alabama and northwest Florida around midday tomorrow (Sunday)… pic.twitter.com/vUDgPr8LRw
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 18, 2023
STORM NEAR LEROY, AL MOVING SOUTH… A lone thunderstorm near Jackson and Leroy in west Alabama is moving south at 25-30 mph. This storm is weakening while pushing south toward Wagerville, Sunflower, and McIntosh. No risk of severe weather with this storm, but there is occasional lightning and thunder involved.
@spann @rzweather @NWSMobile @WEARAllenStrum AWESOME post-storm sunset in Milton, FL this evening! #flwx #sunset pic.twitter.com/BBSnxfNdKs
— Benjamin Mashburn (Lower AL WX) (@AlFlor1) June 18, 2023
The local National Weather Service has confirmed that the tornado that struck Pensacola and Pensacola Beach on Thursday night was an EF2 tornado. https://t.co/2zsVYoO6sk
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 18, 2023
INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY; DAMAGING WINDS & TORNADOES POSSIBLE… The seemingly never-ending train of severe storms is set to continue to happen on Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida with multiple rounds of strong to severe storms being possible. At the moment I am producing this update on Saturday evening, it seems like the highest chance of heavy rain and severe storms may be in the late morning and early afternoon hours as yet another MCS (mesoscale convective system) moves across our region from west to east. This system will bring with it a chance of widespread and potentially intense damaging straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has west Alabama involved in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone with the remainder of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. Please be able to hear warnings on Sunday throughout the day!
UPDATE ON THE STORMS HAPPENING THIS EVENING… Now that severe storms have moved offshore, we have only isolated showers and thunderstorms in progress across our region with no warnings noted as of 7:30PM. More isolated storms may be possible over the next few hours and you may hear some loud thunder and have heavy rain at times overnight. The severe weather risk is temporarily much lower, however, until Sunday morning.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SUNDAY… Timing is a bit more uncertain on Sunday compared to previous days as multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible. The timing of each severe weather event is contingent upon the timing of the most recent event. For now, the higher-resolution convective allowing models (CAMs) continue to highlight Sunday morning and afternoon being the time when strong to severe thunderstorms seem most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Our best guess for an appropriate severe weather timeframe right now is from 8AM to 4PM, but again, that is highly subject to change in the hours ahead. Join me in the RedZone Weather app for the latest information.
MAIN HAZARD CONCERNS SUNDAY – DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & VERY LARGE HAIL… We had multiple reports of tennis ball and baseball size hail earlier today. We will repeat that risk on Sunday. Hail may be quite large in some of the thunderstorms. In addition, the risk of damaging straight line winds will be a bit higher tomorrow, particularly if an organized batch of storms (MCS) moves in from the west. Tornadoes will also be possible region wide. Flash flooding is also a concern as storms train over the same areas in the days ahead.
BE THE HERO AND GET THE WORD OUT… Reiterating what I mentioned last evening in my long text post, this is a marathon, not a sprint. More severe storms on Sunday and perhaps some on Monday. Please help me get the word out that we have *yet another* day that could feature hazardous weather, including tornadoes. So many people don’t watch the news or pay attention to local weather forecasts. It is immensely helpful for folks to help spread the word about this severe weather setup. Thank you to everyone who has so far! Thank you also to everyone who submitted ground truth severe weather and hail photos earlier today. You are appreciated!
RECORD SET FOR CONSECUTIVE TORNADO WARNING DAYS… We have had at least one tornado warning in each of the 24 hour day periods on June 15, June 16, and earlier today (June 17) in Baldwin County with the confirmed tornado near Elsanor and Seminole. I looked back at my career tornado warning days and I did not find a three consecutive day period with tornado warnings like this. The more shocking bit of info here is this statistic may become a four day streak as tornado warnings will be possible on Sunday as well.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
The odds of any tornado warnings happening overnight into early Sunday morning remain LOW, but not exactly zero. Our plan of action is to continue to bring you updates over the next few hours in the RedZone Weather app. If we get a tornado warning locally, we will go live on Facebook Live and YouTube Live to bring you the very latest. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM. Have a nice Saturday evening!
