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Monthly Archives: August 2023

6:42AM August 24, 2023

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VERY HOT TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND; SOME HEAT RELIEF COMING NEXT WEEK… High temperatures will continue to peak at or above the 100 degree mark today and over the next few days. We are finally looking at somewhat of a pattern change that will feature high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s next week with an increased chance of P.M. storms. A tropical disturbance may develop in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico in 5-6 days that has a 20-30% chance of becoming a named tropical storm. It remains far too early to know specifics about where the system will end up. We’re also monitoring Tropical Storm Franklin and multiple other disturbances in the Atlantic this morning.

See all the details in your Thursday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!

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8:10PM August 23, 2023

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NEW TROPICAL STORM MAY FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center says there is a 20% chance of a new tropical storm developing over the next week or so in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. The overall pattern suggests a likely movement northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico in the next 5-7 days. The overall environment ahead of this system points to the potential for a strengthening system. Despite the craziness that is already ensuing with folks posting single run model images left and right, be advised that NO ONE can tell you exactly when this system will develop or where it will ultimately move. Yes, the pattern is somewhat favorable for development and the overall synoptic setup points to a tropical system in the vicinity of the western Caribbean or southern Gulf in about one week. Beyond that, plenty of question marks remain. At this stage, no need to stress or worry. This is simply something to be aware of over the next few days. I will have plenty more updates posted in the RedZone Weather app and on our social platforms. More details below.

LONG RANGE UNCERTAINTY… While you’re almost certainly going to see wild, crazy model runs over the next few days, let me emphasize emphatically that NO ONE can tell you exactly where this developing tropical system will end up. The overall, large scale pattern favors a general northward movement over the next 5-7 days as a monsoon trough lifts northward. After that, the general model consensus points to a northward movement, although specific details are too far out to ascertain at this time. Again, no way to know specifics just yet. We probably will not know more specifics until the weekend. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of Mexico region (from Mexico all the way over to Florida) should keep a close eye on this developing tropical system over the next few days. No reason to be scared or panic – situations like this are all too common in the peak part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I’ll keep you posted in the RedZone Weather app.

PLEASE RELY ON LEGIT WEATHER SOURCES AND NOT FAKE NEWS… It is that time of year when the fear mongers and the hype/hyperbole folks go absolutely bonkers when global models start outputting solutions 7 to 14+ days out that show potential major tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. It boggles my mind that people get a rush on scaring the masses, but you can bet your barometer, they do. Please keep in mind that obscure Facebook pages like “Southeastern Hurricane Source,” “Your City Weather Source,” and “Gulf Coast Storm Updates” are often managed by people who have *zero* training or skill set in weather forecasting and broadcast communication. My inbox is often filled with questions about these obscure posts that lack any real, detailed context. It would be so helpful, both now and in the future: If you see these posts being shared, please kindly educate the folks you love that it is so vital to have REPUTABLE sources for urgent weather info. It can be the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, local broadcast meteorologists, or your local EMA. We are honored to be one of your sources as well. Bottom line – Ditch the obscure pages and stay tuned to the real sources. Please don’t share fake news/garbage model posts.

LOCAL FORECAST – MORE HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND P.M. STORMS… A few highly isolated thunderstorms have managed to develop this evening across parts of Covington, Okaloosa, and Walton counties. Storms just southeast of Crestview are producing heavy downpours of rain as of 8PM. Unfortunately, our significant, extreme heat pattern is set to continue into Thursday, Friday, and the weekend. High temperatures will be at or in excess of 100 degrees tomorrow afternoon with heat index numbers closer to 110° by 3PM.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

I will have a detailed rundown on the tropics and our local forecast posted in the next regularly scheduled forecast video by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Wednesday evening!

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