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9:20AM August 30, 2023
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RAIN AT TIMES OVER NEXT FEW DAYS… Elevated rain chances are in store for south Alabama and northwest Florida over the next several days till Saturday. Then, unfortunately, it looks like higher heat index values are set to return for a bit.
SCATTERED STORMS LOCALLY TODAY… While our focus will be to our east today as Hurricane Idalia moves ashore, we will be watching scattered thunderstorms locally on this Wednesday, mostly in the afternoon and evening hours.
HURRICANE IDALIA PASSING TO OUR EAST; P.M. STORMS LOCALLY… Hurricane Idalia is a major hurricane set to make landfall imminently in the Big Bend region of Florida. Idalia is now a major hurricane, causing extensive impacts across much of north Florida. We are fortunate in south Alabama and northwest Florida that no major local impacts will happen because of Idalia in our local area. Dangerous rip currents will be a concern at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches today and tomorrow. Double red flags are flying at many local beaches. Locally, we are expecting pop-up showers and thunderstorms to be possible this afternoon into this evening.
LANDFALL OF IDALIA IMMINENT IN BIG BEND REGION… The core of Hurricane Idalia will move ashore in the Big Bend region of Florida imminently, over the next few hours. We continue to advise absolutely no travel on Interstate 10 eastbound out of our local area from Marianna and points east. It is simply too dangerous for travel at this point near Tallahassee and Lake City on I-10 as extreme winds are occurring or are set to occur imminently. The core of Idalia will continue moving northeast through southern Georgia and ultimately into South Carolina later today.
HURRICANE FRANKLIN TO PASS BERMUDA TODAY… Hurricane Franklin is a large hurricane with an eye that is over 50 miles in diameter. Franklin is located about 230 miles west of Bermuda this morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda as tropical storm force winds will be possible throughout the day as the core of Franklin passes just to the northwest of the island commonwealth. Franklin will continue to gradually weaken while pushing northeast over the next few days. Maximum winds are near 115 mph now but Franklin is expected to become a category 1 hurricane in a few days before becoming extratropical over the northern Atlantic Ocean. No direct local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida will happen because of Hurricane Franklin.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IN ATLANTIC… Tropical Depression 11 formed “in the middle of nowhere” in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean yesterday. TD11 is located just about as far away as you can get from any land areas in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean between North America and Africa. TD11 may briefly ramp up to tropical storm status before drifting north over cooler waters in the northern Atlantic Ocean over the next few days. No threat to any land areas.
SEPARATE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… Conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical wave moves west or northwest in the days ahead. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 50-60% chance of a tropical storm forming while this tropical wave moves west and moves away from the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. No threat to land anytime soon once the system passes through the Cabo Verde Islands.
MORE P.M. STORMS IN NEXT FEW DAYS… Locally, we have more pop-up, P.M. thunderstorms expected over the next few days into the weekend. Rain chances will spike again on Friday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms being likely. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s today with low-90s likely over the next few days.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Wednesday RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!
Tornado Warning till 4:30AM EDT for parts of Orange and Osceola counties in central Florida… This possible tornado is associated with an outer rain band of Hurricane Idalia. pic.twitter.com/tQz5APZ7pU
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
Hurricane #Idalia has maximum winds of 125 mph at 4AM EDT. The storm is 3-5 hours out from landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida. IF the eye of Idalia continues moving north-northeast, the landfall point will happen near Steinhatchee or Perry. pic.twitter.com/y0NZ5kVmBF
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
3AM EDT: Hurricane Idalia continues to move toward the Big Bend region of Florida. Maximum winds are near 120 mph. MSLP at 944 mb.
While not a certainty, a landfall point in Taylor or Dixie counties seems likely. Impacts will certainly extend well beyond those two counties! pic.twitter.com/MAhqfMlcRP
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
This radar loop starts at 8:35PM EDT. Hurricane #Idalia moved due north from 8:35 to 12:35AM, followed by a pronounced jog northeastward from 12:35 to 2:35AM.
Extreme, potentially life threatening, impacts are ahead for areas near the coast of Apalachee Bay and the Big Bend. pic.twitter.com/VjmWQ45IdY
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
2AM EDT: Hurricane #Idalia has strengthened into a major hurricane. Maximum winds are near 120 mph with MSLP down to 945MB.
Idalia appears to have finally started the heavily advertised northeasterly turn OR is wobbling NE.
Dotted line is a direct north-to-south line. pic.twitter.com/KmBqUVECCl
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
Tornado Warning till 2AM EDT for parts of Highlands, Hardee, and Polk counties in Florida due to a possible tornado moving into Avon Park from the southwest. pic.twitter.com/ciaYFaLLtC
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
The eye of #Idalia is currently about 10 miles wide as of 1:30AM EDT. Eyewall is roughly 30-35 miles wide.
Small core. Big impacts. https://t.co/DqYbJtwfqt
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
You can track the U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Hurricane #Idalia by viewing callsign TEAL71 in the @flightradar24 app. pic.twitter.com/danF5lrxQ6
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
1AM EDT: Hurricane #Idalia continues to move north at 16 mph. Maximum winds continue to be near 110 mph. MSLP at 958MB and holding, for now.
Landfall likely in the 6-9AM EDT time range in the Big Bend region. Catastrophic storm surge likely in parts of Apalachee Bay/Big Bend. pic.twitter.com/PD1xwDud5A
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
Midnight EDT: Hurricane Idalia continues to move north at 17 mph. Maximum winds at 110 mph. Minimum central pressure at 958 millibars.
Landfall projected in the 6AM to 10AM EDT time frame, most likely along the stretch of coast from St. Marks to Cedar Key, FL. pic.twitter.com/sCKxMhoOMC
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
If there is ANY bit of "good" news that can be ascertained in a moment when a lot of the news is bad (i.e. rapid intensification) with Hurricane Idalia, it is that the core of the hurricane force winds remains quite small.
Where that small core makes landfall – BAD news! pic.twitter.com/KiwqyduVMu
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
The full multi-hour mission by the Air Force plane that has finished investigating Hurricane #Idalia shows the track of the eye in orange, with black-labeled pressure values falling during the flight, indicating rapid intensification.
The overall motion of Idalia remained a… pic.twitter.com/4VQpNMppCY
— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 30, 2023
11PM EDT: Hurricane #Idalia continues to strengthen. Maximum winds are near 110 mph with MSLP down to 958 millibars.
NHC is now explicitly calling for Idalia to be a category 4 hurricane at landfall. Landfall Wednesday morning in Big Bend region. pic.twitter.com/AnX9w8Bia6
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
Projected radar off the HRRR model below…
The center of the eye of Hurricane #Idalia is 152 miles SSW of the projected NHC landfall zone. Landfall may not happen at that exact point! Major impacts ahead for the Big Bend region & north Florida. New advisory shortly at 11PM EDT. pic.twitter.com/KkuL5rwa3K
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
Reconnaissance aircraft now finding winds in the ballpark of 105-110 mph in the eastern eyewall of Hurricane #Idalia. The storm's core structure continues to mature on radar imagery as rapid strengthening continues. pic.twitter.com/O1bx6tO8IE
— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 30, 2023
Reconnaissance aircraft now finding winds in the ballpark of 105-110 mph in the eastern eyewall of Hurricane #Idalia. The storm's core structure continues to mature on radar imagery as rapid strengthening continues. pic.twitter.com/O1bx6tO8IE
— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 30, 2023
The 10PM EDT position update for Hurricane #Idalia has the storm located 135 miles WSW of Tampa, FL.
Maximum winds have increased to 110 mph. Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane imminently.
MSLP down to 960 millibars and falling. pic.twitter.com/2Bd0Ua4SdC
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
1) Don't focus on the exact line for a future track – there *will* be slight variances up until landfall.
2) Please observe the "wobbles" #Idalia is experiencing by looking at the eye/center line. These wobbles are called Trochoidal motions. Very common in strong hurricanes. pic.twitter.com/TrxOkk7BPV
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023
Small eye is forming within #Idalia… this will allow for a period of rapid intensification up to landfall. Not good for the Big Bend area of Florida. #FLwx pic.twitter.com/G22IPKf1LK
— Kyle Noël (@KyleNoelWx) August 30, 2023
A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of the Florida Peninsula valid until 6AM EDT as Hurricane #Idalia approaches. This includes Tampa, Ft. Myers, Lakeland, Ocala, Gainesville, Perry, Cedar Key, Crystal River, Clearwater, and Venice. pic.twitter.com/7Ug7khFHgg
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2023