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Monthly Archives: January 2024

7:28PM January 26, 2024

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HEADS UP – AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY 7AM TO 2PM… The risk of damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes has increased for Saturday morning into the midday hours. Guidance is now strongly indicating a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) or squall line will push across our region tomorrow (Saturday, January 27, 2024) likely in the morning and midday hours. There is a high likelihood some of the storms will produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. In addition, we may see a few storms out ahead of the main line that could become severe in the morning hours. There have been a few changes in the forecast for tomorrow. Below is the latest information as of Friday evening at 7:30PM.

FORECAST BUST TODAY COULD LEAD TO STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW… Thunderstorms simply did not materialize across south Alabama and northwest Florida today, plain and simple. The forecast was not good at all. Model guidance consistently suggested scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms would happen throughout the day as recently as this morning. That did not happen. Unfortunately, models simply did not “see” the large area of thunderstorms that happened a few hundred miles offshore in the northern Gulf of Mexico that prevented rain and storms across the area today. I am concerned that this model discrepancy is still manifesting in the data we are seeing tonight, thus there is at least some chance we may see an even higher severe weather risk when we wake up tomorrow morning. Have a way to hear warnings overnight before you go to sleep, just in case we happen to have a few early morning weather warnings.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SATURDAY… The timing of the severe storms has been adjusted to be a bit earlier on Saturday. 7AM to 2PM is now the seven hour window when strong to severe storms will be MOST likely to happen across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. This window is about two hours earlier than we suggested compared to previous forecasts. Again, we encourage everyone to have multiple ways to hear warnings overnight before you go to sleep just in case warnings get started rather early in the morning hours on Saturday.

DON’T BE SURPRISED BY AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER… While it looks like the “main event” tomorrow will likely be the squall line set to move from west to east across the local area, there is a chance we see a few embedded tornadoes in addition to an increasing risk of damaging wind gusts. Based on the latest guidance, it looks like nearly all of our local area will be involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk tomorrow by daybreak, with at least some chance of the threat being upgraded to a Level 3 risk. Regardless of which level/color/number threat level we are at tomorrow morning, be aware of the risk of strong to severe storms tomorrow from the morning hours into the early afternoon hours. The risk will end from west to east as the main line of storms moves through. Good news is that the whole system should be to our east by 2-3PM.

MUCH COOLER & DRIER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Drier, cooler air will filter into south Alabama and northwest Florida on Saturday night into Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 50s with morning lows Sunday night into Monday in the mid-30s.

WARMING TEMPS MIDWEEK… The quick cool down happening Sunday into Monday won’t last long as high temperatures will be in the 60s by midweek and in the 70s by the end of the upcoming week. Monday through Thursday is expected to be dry with mostly sunny skies each day.

BREWTON NOAA WEATHER RADIO DOWN… Important note for folks that use the Brewton, AL frequency of the NOAA Weather Radio system: The Brewton NOAA Weather Radio channel is currently down. The National Weather Service indicates the system will not be fixed before this round of severe storms on Saturday. If you use the Brewton frequency, please change your NOAA Weather Radio to another frequency to ensure you get alerts. NOAA Weather Radio is maintained by the National Weather Service.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have more updates throughout the night in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed discussion will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Friday evening!

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