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7:58PM April 1, 2024

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ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY HAPPEN TUESDAY NIGHT… The overall risk of severe storms Tuesday night has increased slightly across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The Storm Prediction Center now includes all of our local area in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk. It should be noted that the overall tornado potential with this particular event for our local area does not seem particularly high. There is hardly any doubt that the higher tornado probabilities will exist from the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama into Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio. Could an isolated tornado or two happen locally? Yes, but the more pressing concern tomorrow night will likely be gusty winds capable of knocking down a few trees and potentially large hail. Regardless, I will be in studio all night long tomorrow night bringing you the latest in the RedZone Weather app. In addition, we will “go live” and stay live IF tornado warnings are needed locally.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING… 7PM Tuesday evening to 4AM Wednesday morning is the nine hour window when strong to severe thunderstorms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida with a core risk time from 9PM to 2AM. This will be a relatively brief window for severe storms despite the risk happening in the dark hours after sunset.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN – DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… Most of the high-res model guidance points to a line of strong to severe thunderstorms being the most likely solution of what we should expect Tuesday night. This means damaging wind gusts capable of knocking down a few trees will be the main hazard concern. The overall potential of more discrete storms (that would be more prone to produce tornadoes and large hail) seems rather low. The risk is not zero, but it IS low. Bottom line here: Have a way to hear warnings tomorrow night and join us IF we have tornado warnings.

TORNADO RISK HIGHER ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND POINTS NORTH… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the state of Ohio in an uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk valid for tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Significant, long-track, strong tornadoes will be possible in Ohio. A few strong (EF2+) tornadoes may also be possible in parts of Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and potentially even far northern Alabama in the Tennessee Valley region. Parameters for tornado formation will be maximized in those areas. The risk farther south locally is lower, but not completely zero.

A NOTE ABOUT SPC OUTLOOKS… I consider the scientists at the Storm Prediction Center to be the best in the world when it comes to severe weather forecasting. Their combined experience and track record far exceeds any private company in existence today, in my opinion. I must say, however, that the performance and verification of the Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks in south Alabama and northwest Florida over the last several months has been a bit off. SPC has consistently “overshot” in terms of putting our local area specifically in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk multiple times with very little to show in terms of actual severe weather impacts. I consider this more of a fluke than a trend. The fact is, a Level 2 risk means “scattered severe storms possible.” Even in a perfect-performing outlook, MOST communities WON’T experience severe weather issues in a Level 2 risk. There are times, however, like February 15, 2016 when significant events happen during a Level 2 risk day. An EF3 tornado ripped through Century, FL and Flomaton, AL that day, injuring folks and causing significant property damage. I do not believe our local area will have an EF3 tornado tomorrow or tomorrow night, but one or two tornadoes are not out of the question. Have a way to hear warnings!

BETTER WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY… High temperatures will be in the 70s on Wednesday after the passage of the cold front responsible for the storms pushing through our local area. Overnight lows will be in the 40s region wide on Thursday and Friday mornings. There is a chance some communities farther inland in southwest Alabama may briefly be in the upper-30s. Patchy frost cannot completely be ruled out, but the chances seem to be a bit lower than previous guidance. Good news.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (top right corner) and tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates posted throughout the day on Tuesday into Tuesday night in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to join me in the next regularly scheduled forecast video tomorrow morning at 7:15AM for the very latest information. Have a nice Monday evening!

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