May 2024 – Page 56 – RedZone Weather

SPOTTY STORMS TODAY; SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING… Isolated showers and perhaps a few strong thunderstorms will be possible on this Thursday but the more significant severe weather issues are more likely to happen locally overnight into Friday morning. The next 24-36 hours will feature a very active weather pattern across south Alabama and northwest Florida when we ALL need to have a way to hear urgent weather warnings. Uncertainty, unfortunately, has increased since my update last night and there is now a chance that parts of our area may have not two, but three separate rounds of thunderstorms. What makes the forecast problematic and injects more uncertainty depends on each round of storms and if each round actually materializes and where the storms in each round move. Let’s break down the situation as to what we know right now as of 7AM Thursday.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TODAY, TONIGHT, TOMORROW… Due to uncertainty drastically increasing since my previous update last evening, I am going to do something I do not normally do and point you to the highly detailed paragraphs below for specific timing. **The key message for timing is that severe thunderstorms, including damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, will be possible from later this morning to Noon tomorrow (Friday).** Not every community will have severe storms. Some will, but many will not, thus I am greatly increasing the window for storms due to pronounced uncertainty detailed below.

POSSIBLE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON… Uncertainty surrounding the first round of storms is quite high in that questions exist as to just how far thunderstorms will extend into our area. I am more confident that thunderstorms currently in progress to our north will affect the Wiregrass region just to our east in southeast Alabama. Some of these storms may extend into our area, specifically in parts of Butler, Covington, and perhaps even Escambia (AL), Conecuh, and Monroe counties. There also, however, is a chance that showers and thunderstorms remain more isolated in nature across our local area today during the daytime hours. If storms fire up TODAY, 10AM to 3PM is the main time frame. All severe weather hazards will be possible, including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts. I will have radar updates posted throughout the day and into tonight as needed in the RedZone Weather app. At this point, I would suggest the odds of tornado warnings happening locally TODAY remains quite low. That risk will increase overnight into Friday. High temperatures will be around the 90 degree mark this afternoon.

LIKELY SECOND ROUND OF STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING… Confidence is much higher in the probability of a complex of heavy rain and thunderstorms affecting parts of our local area overnight into Friday morning. Right now, 2AM to 7AM is the core 5 hour window when severe thunderstorms seem most likely to move across our region in the form of a pronounced mesoscale convective system (MCS). This MCS will be capable of producing widespread, potentially significant damaging straight line winds, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. This will be an overnight deal, unfortunately. It is critical that you have a way to hear warnings today, tonight, and into tomorrow.

POSSIBLE THIRD ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW MORNING INTO MIDDAY… The atmosphere may be able to quickly recover behind the advancing cluster of storms that moves through early tomorrow morning enough to allow for rapid development of more strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow in the late morning and midday hours. This round of storms would likely be more of an issue for places closer to the coast. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail will be possible. There is a chance isolated instances of flash flooding may happen as well, depending on if thunderstorms train over the same areas. Keep in mind that a lot can and will change between now and when this potential third round of storms develops or not. There is a chance the third round of storms never materializes due to the atmosphere remaining “worked over” due to the early morning round of storms.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE MAIN RISK; TORNADOES & HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE… The most concerning aspect of this specific severe weather setup is the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts, specifically (although not exclusively) across inland areas of southwest Alabama. Tornadoes will be possible, but I am more concerned for the potential for trees coming down and the potential 70-80 mph wind gusts. Large hail will also be possible in the strongest of the storms.

NICER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND… After the passage of the severe storms on Friday, better weather is in store for the weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper-70s and near the 80 degree mark on Saturday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies being likely. Sunday may feature a few showers late in the day but most locales should remain dry. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 80s.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK… Multiple rounds of active weather are expected next week, starting on Monday when scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible. There may end up being multiple severe weather risks over multiple days through Wednesday or Thursday of the upcoming week. Let’s get through the severe weather setup through tomorrow and then we can start focusing on the mess setting up for early next week. Be sure to check with me this weekend for the very latest info concerning next week.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have updates posted throughout the day, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app. If a tornado warning becomes required at any point through this severe weather event, be sure to join me on Facebook Live for the very latest information. Have a wonderful Thursday!

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