TROPICS SET TO BE MORE ACTIVE; TWO TROPICAL STORMS MAY FORM… The tropics are becoming more active with multiple areas that may see a named tropical storm form over the next 7 days. One area of concern is located in the southern Gulf. The good news for Alabama and northwest Florida is that this system probably won’t ever be a direct concern for the local area. The other disturbance is expected to develop in the southwestern Atlantic and approach The Bahamas, Florida, and/or potentially Georgia in about 5-7 days. Some scenarios point to the potential for our area to get a good bit of rain off this system in 6-8 days, but uncertainty at this point remains high.
60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN BAY OF CAMPECHE… The Central American Gyre (CAG) is a large area of spin in the atmosphere over parts of Central America. This CAG is expected to cause enough convection and spin to enable a tropical storm to form in the far southern Gulf of Mexico, specifically in the Bay of Campeche region, over the next several days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this area of interest a 60% chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next 7 days. Model guidance has consistently indicated this system will probably move west or northwest. If a named tropical storm forms, the system will likely make landfall in Mexico in 4-8 days. Interests in Texas and Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this developing system as there is uncertainty as to how far impacts may extend from the center of circulation. This may end up being a substantial rain event for parts of Mexico, Texas, and potentially Louisiana in about a week. For now, impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida from this system are not expected.
20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN ATLANTIC AND MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA… The system that may bring some rain to our local area in about one week has the potential to develop in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center has now flagged this area with a 20% chance of formal development. The ultimate track of this developing system will largely be influenced by a building ridge of high pressure to the north of the system that will cause record high temperatures for parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions over the next week. IF the system is a bit stronger, it will probably take a more northerly track toward north Florida and potentially Georgia as well. IF the system ends up being weaker, a more southerly track toward central or south Florida seems more likely. Regardless of the exact track, the steering of the system should continue to move it northwest toward the end of next week, likely putting south Alabama and northwest Florida in the zone to see some beneficial rain. Beyond that, impacts are uncertain, but for now, plan for increased rain chances in the Friday and Saturday timeframe in one week. Many question marks at this point on specifics concerning the future track and intensity of this system! I will have another detailed update posted on Sunday evening with the latest information.
POP-UP STORMS LIKELY LOCALLY SUNDAY… Scattered pop-up thunderstorms (not associated with any tropical system) are likely across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Sunday. Most of the showers and storms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will again be in the low- to mid-90s. Widespread severe storms are not expected on Sunday locally.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have updates posted throughout the day on Sunday as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Saturday evening!
