PTC #1 IN S.W. GULF; DRIER & HOTTER OVER NEXT FEW DAYS LOCALLY… Rain chances across south Alabama and northwest Florida are much lower compared to the last two days. That is not to say that we will be completely rain-free today, but the overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be much lower today with only one or two storms being possible. It looks like the greatest chance of any rain today will happen in parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties between 9AM and 3PM. Most spots across the entire region will remain dry. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s and near the 90 degree mark. We continue to monitor active conditions in the tropics, but the good news is no imminent threats are noted for our local area.
TROPICS: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #1 IN BAY OF CAMPECHE… Advisories were initiated yesterday evening on the area of disturbed weather located in the Bay of Campeche region in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has deemed this broad area of convection as Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) #1. This “Potential Tropical Cyclone” designation is extremely confusing, but basically it allows NHC to go ahead and issue Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings ahead of the formal development/classification of a tropical storm. In this case, a Tropical Storm Watch has been posted from Port O’Connor, Texas southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande River (which is the U.S.-Mexico border). In addition, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from the U.S.-Mexico border southward to Boca de Catan in northeastern Mexico. Tropical storm conditions will be possible in these areas. Regardless of the specifics concerning classification, this will be a big rainmaker for parts of south Texas with 10″ of total rain being possible. Flash flooding will certainly be a concern in south Texas in the days ahead.
TROPICS: CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN S.W. ATLANTIC FADES… The non-tropical area of low pressure at the end of a decaying cold front in the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic has not materialized. This is the system that had at least some chance of pushing some moisture into our local area on Friday or Saturday. That likely will not happen now as the system remains weak and disorganized. From NHC: “An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of The Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States on Friday.” Chances of formal development are now down to only a 10-20% chance.
TROPICS: ANOTHER BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM POSSIBLE IN ABOUT A WEEK… The National Hurricane Center is indicating after PTC #1 moves onshore in northeastern Mexico or south Texas, a new, separate tropical storm may form in about a week in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. Early model guidance points to a very similar track of this new system as well, pointing the system toward Mexico. From NHC: “Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.”
DRIER THROUGH THURSDAY… Rain chances across the local area are projected to remain quite low (10% chance or less) today, tomorrow, and on Thursday. We will have partly cloudy skies in place across the region each day with high temperatures around the 90 degree mark. Morning lows will be in the low-70s.
SCATTERED STORMS AROUND THIS WEEKEND… More in the way of pop-up, scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible on Saturday, Sunday, into Monday. These pop-up storms will be partially due to more moisture content in the atmosphere (and higher humidity values). Highs this weekend will be in the mid-90s with morning lows in the low- to mid-70s.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I have all the details for you in your Tuesday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!
