NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 17, 2024
Thunderstorms continue to propagate inland this afternoon. Heavy downpours are happening near Brewton, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Mobile, Prichard, and Pace.
More storms are likely to develop over the next few hours. pic.twitter.com/O7DVqVvjfg
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 17, 2024
@rzweather @NWSMobile @michaelwhitewx @WEARAllenStrum @spann Outflow-dominant storm moving over Milton, FL this afternoon. Large area of low scud attempting to form a shelf cloud, but seems to be limited to the west side of the storm. Outflow winds gusting to 20-30 mph. pic.twitter.com/RlVFwKh2rS
— Benjamin Mashburn (Lower AL WX) (@AlFlor1) June 17, 2024
Heavier storms have developed near Whiting Field, Point Baker, Milton, Munson, Whitfield, Stapleton, Niceville, Tiger Point, and Fort Walton Beach this afternoon.
These storms are moving northwest. pic.twitter.com/keHr2QoRF5
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 17, 2024
Thunderstorms are officially in "rapid fire" mode across the region with scattered storms developing quickly this afternoon. Scattered downpours are likely over the next several hours.
Storms today will be capable of producing heavy rain, loud thunder, lots of lightning. ⛈️ pic.twitter.com/mx3oAJUEIs
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 17, 2024
The sprawling gyre now entering the southern Gulf of Mexico has been labeled "Invest #91L" by @NHC_Atlantic. The system will move ashore over northeastern #Mexico and #Texas between Wednesday morning and Thursday morning, bringing with it a large area of heavy rains that could… pic.twitter.com/h4bZmaRIUd
— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) June 17, 2024
🌊Not going to be a great week for beachgoers as the Gulf will be rather dangerous this week. High surf of 5 to 7 feet will lead to deadly crashing waves, life threatening rip currents and potentially minor beach erosion for all of our area beaches. #mobwx pic.twitter.com/TOl3S61NDV
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) June 17, 2024
RAIN AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND… Rain chances will lessen as we get into the middle part of the week ahead of higher rain chances this weekend.
SCATTERED STORMS TODAY; MONITORING TWO DISTURBANCES IN TROPICS… Spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday, quite similar to what happened yesterday. Most of the shower and storm activity will happen in the afternoon and evening hours, although a few storms will be possible later this morning as well. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s and low-90s. We continue to monitor two areas of disturbed weather in the tropics. One system has at least some chance of throwing some moisture into our local area later this week and into the weekend.
DRIER PATTERN LOCALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY… Lower (not zero) rain chances are expected on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as an area of high pressure builds into our region. High temperatures will be in the low-90s with morning lows in the 70s. Highly isolated P.M. storms are not out of the question, but most locales will remain dry.
30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC… The area of concern that is developing in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean south of Bermuda is at the tail end of a decaying cold front that is slowly moving east. This area of disturbed weather will begin to rapidly move westward over the next few days. Nearly all of the major global weather models show this system being a rather small, compact, probably “weak” system. Some models ramp the system up to tropical storm status briefly, while others keep the system as an open trough of low pressure that would not take a name. Regardless of the intensity of the system, I expect rain in parts of north Florida and Georgia later this week. Some scenarios point to the system crossing into the Gulf of Mexico or remaining over land and moving into our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida FROM the east. If this scenario pans out, that would bump up our local rain chances later this week. Other impacts are to be determined, but because of the overall weak nature of the system, I doubt significant impacts will happen IF model trends continue. This is something I will be closely monitoring over the next few days.
70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN WESTERN GULF… There is a large area of disturbed weather that extends across parts of Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and much of Central America this evening. This feature is known as a Central American Gyre (CAG). The CAG is expected to rotate multiple areas of low pressure around it over the next few days. One of these lows may briefly become a tropical storm before moving into mainland Mexico later this week. We note that regardless of if a formal tropical storm happens, folks in Texas and western Louisiana should expect potentially significant heavy rain and flash flooding. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has parts of east Texas picking up 7-10 inches of total rainfall over the next 5 days.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates posted throughout the day as needed in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning.
Have a nice start to your week!
