HEAT ADVISORY FOR 1ST DAY OF JULY; TRACKING HURRICANE BERYL & TS CHRIS… Heat index values will be as high as 111° today as a warm, moist air mass remains in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with the greatest rain chances happening closer to the beaches and bays. Not every community across the region will have rain before the end of the day, but some will. Air temperatures will peak in the low- to mid-90s but the humidity will make the air feel quite a bit hotter. We continue to track three separate areas in the tropics today: Hurricane Beryl, Tropical Storm Chris near the coast of Mexico, and INVEST 96L in the Atlantic Ocean.
QUITE HOT TODAY; P.M. STORMS AT TIMES… A Heat Advisory is in effect for all local counties from 10AM to 7PM in south Alabama and northwest Florida on this first day of July. Heat index values will be in the 108-111° range later today. Isolated pop-up thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day, specifically closer to the coast. Rain chances are a bit less, but certainly not zero, farther inland today. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but some of the storms will be loud at times.
MORE OF THE SAME OVER NEXT FEW DAYS; HOT 4TH OF JULY… If you like consistency in your weather forecast, this the week for you! High temperatures will be in the 90-95° range over the next 7 days with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, mostly (although not exclusively) in the P.M. hours. This holds true for Independence Day on Thursday as well. Most of the fireworks displays across the region should be dry but there will inevitably be some communities that have pop-up storms around in the evening hours on Thursday.
TROPICS: HURRICANE BERYL NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS… Hurricane Beryl is expected to remain a major hurricane while crossing through the southern Windward Islands over the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Warning is up for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago. Beryl will likely weaken while crossing westward through the Caribbean Sea later this week as upper-level atmospheric shear begins to take a toll on the system. Impacts from Beryl may be possible in southern parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica later in the week ahead of potential impacts in Mexico and Belize later this week.
TROPICS: BERYL LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST… Model guidance continues to trend westward for Beryl. Mexico looks to take the brunt of the impacts from this storm. Significant impacts may be possible under some scenarios in Belize, Honduras, and Jamaica as well. There is still some chance for potential impacts in Texas and Louisiana. Lower-end chances of impacts exist for Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, but much of the guidance has shifted south and west of our area. This means there is a high (but not completely certain) chance south Alabama and northwest Florida may not have impacts due to Hurricane Beryl. This is something I will continuously be monitoring over the next several days until we can give a definitive “all clear.”
TROPICS: TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Three yesterday in the late afternoon hours. TD3 strengthened and quickly became Tropical Storm Chris at 10PM last evening. Chris is located in the Bay of Campeche region of the southern Gulf of Mexico. This storm will primarily be a heavy rain and flash flooding concern for parts of Mexico over the next 24-72 hours as the storm moves inland and rapidly decays. Direct local impacts are not expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida due to Tropical Storm Chris.
TROPICS: INVEST 96L IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN… Another, distinct tropical wave has developed “behind,” or east of, Hurricane Beryl in the Atlantic Ocean. This tropical wave will likely become a named tropical storm in the days ahead as it tracks generally right behind Hurricane Beryl. The National Hurricane Center has development probabilities up to 70%. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of this next system. Another system to watch in the days ahead.
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See all the details in your Monday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great start to your week!
