TROPICAL STORM FORMATION POSSIBLE THIS WEEK; TOO EARLY TO KNOW FUTURE PATH… After a quiet stretch over the last few weeks, an area of disturbed weather may develop into the next named tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin over the next 5-7 days. We are entering into a more active phase of hurricane season as we look ahead to the last days of July and into early August. The National Hurricane Center has flagged an area of disturbed weather located over the central Atlantic Ocean with a 40% chance of becoming a named tropical storm. It doesn’t look like the system will immediately develop on Sunday or Monday, but the system has a higher chance of developing midweek or in the latter half of the upcoming week as environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable. Let me be very clear in stating I cannot tell you (nor can ANYONE) where this system will end up. Could it be a Gulf storm? Yep. Could it be an issue instead for the U.S. East Coast? Certainly possible.
DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY TOMORROW; TROPICAL STORM FORMATION MOST LIKELY NEAR CUBA & BAHAMAS… Right now (on Saturday evening), the system in question is located in an environment that is hostile and not supportive of immediate development. This will change as the system moves west toward Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, and The Bahamas. The environment will become less dry and dusty and the upper-level wind pattern will become more favorable for development. It remains to be seen how land impacts (in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, specifically) will factor into development as well. If the system is closer to or passes right over those islands, development may take a bit longer to happen or may not happen at all. If, however, the system remains over water, development will be more likely to happen.
NO NEED TO STRESS; JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH… Trust me when I say I have seen the fear mongers and model hyper folks amp up their single image model run posts today. These people love to promote anything that drums up fear (and thus, their post engagement across social media). The problem has become so bad that even some professional meteorologists engage in this practice. Please understand that it is NOT a generally accepted practice to push model images without context. Doing so causes so much unnecessary anxiety for so many. Please do not share this garbage when it comes across your feed. I do not have to be your weather source of information, but I am pleading with you not to trust some untrained loon on social media that simply is at it for clicks, likes, and a quick dopamine hit. There is ZERO reason to panic, stress, or worry at this point. This system is simply something to watch. It’s hurricane season, after all, and things like this are totally normal. I will monitor the latest trends and bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app over the next few days.
LOCALLY, P.M. STORMS LIKELY IN DAYS AHEAD… The local weather forecast remains quite seasonal for the last days of July. Pulse-type, pop-up thunderstorms will be possible each day over the next 7 days. The greatest rain chances, just like most days this time of year, will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. Widespread severe storms remain unlikely, but some of the thunderstorms that fire up will produce heavy rainfall, gusty winds, loud thunder, and cloud-to-ground lightning. I have been posting a radar update just about every hour in the RedZone Weather app during the afternoon and evening hours over the last few days. That will continue tomorrow into next week as well.
APP… If you havenβt already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted over the next several days about this system in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Saturday evening!
