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Monthly Archives: September 2024

10:15AM September 23, 2024

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PTC9 TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA BIG BEND; FORECAST CHANGES STILL POSSIBLE… The first projected path for newly designated Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 shows the developing storm moving toward the Florida Big Bend region later this week. This is the first official forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center. The designation can be confusing as this was Invest 97L, but now it is a “potential tropical cyclone” as coastal watches and warnings are being issued in Cuba. It is important to realize that impacts CAN and WILL extend beyond this cone of uncertainty. The cone simply shows where the center point of this potentially large storm will likely be moving, but the impacts from the storm will extend outward from that center point by potentially a hundred miles or more. Right now, the cone extends from Destin on the west side to Tampa Bay on the east side. This means that the MOST likely landfall zone, as of 10AM Monday is between Mexico Beach and Cedar Key, Florida.

ALABAMA & MUCH OF N.W. FLORIDA ON “BETTER,” WESTERN SIDE, FOR NOW… Guidance has been fairly consistent over the last 24-48 hours in suggesting that much of Alabama and northwest Florida will be on the “better” or western side of this developing tropical system. That is important, as even if the system ramps up to a powerful hurricane, our local area would likely not experience near the significant impacts that we would expect near the center of the storm and on the “messy,” volatile eastern side of the storm.

LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – S.W. ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… IF, and that is a big IF, the forecast verifies as it stands right now, southwest Alabama and northwest Florida (areas near and west of Opp, Crestview, and Destin) would probably not have direct, significant local impacts from this developing storm. Please understand, however, that this system continues to be in the formative stages and further forecast changes will be possible. In the current forecast scenario, our local area would likely have rain around at times later this week along with rip current and high wave concerns at local beaches. The bigger impacts, however, would miss our local area to the east IF the current forecast holds.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR PARTS OF CUBA AND MEXICO… The reason the National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is due to the need for a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning, even though we don’t yet have a firm center of circulation in the storm. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico and for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico and for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch will be needed tomorrow or Wednesday for parts of the Florida Big Bend region and perhaps parts of the Florida Panhandle region and the western coast of Florida near Tampa, potentially.

STORM TIMING – PTC9… The U.S. landfall of this developing storm is currently forecast to happen on Thursday. Impacts from the storm will begin in parts of Florida as early as late Wednesday night, however. Folks in the Florida Panhandle from Panama City and Marianna eastward should really keep a close watch on this system. Further forecast changes will be possible in the days ahead.

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I will have more updates posted throughout the day and into this evening in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Monday!

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