🌧️ 1145pm – Light rain showers continue to impact the coastal communities late this evening. Expect off and on rain showers throughout the overnight hours and into early Tuesday. #mobwx pic.twitter.com/kdpWlDJPwb
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) November 12, 2024
HURRICANE SEASON NOT DONE YET; TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM IN CARIBBEAN… Usually, November is a quiet month in the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Not this year. After Hurricane Rafael last week, it looks like the Caribbean Sea may have another tropical storm developing later this week or into the upcoming weekend. Odds of development have considerably increased today. The National Hurricane Center indicates the chances of a named tropical storm developing are at a 60% chance.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST… Right now, the tropical disturbance slated to move into the western Caribbean Sea is currently situated near and just south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The disturbance is producing disorganized rain and thunderstorms. The disturbance will move over Jamaica tonight into tomorrow before emerging in the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center indicates “Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down and meander through the weekend.”
LONG RANGE IDEAS FOR WHERE THE DISTURBANCE ENDS UP… The odds of the developing tropical system ending up in the Gulf of Mexico are fairly high, but not completely certain. The short-term prognosis of the system suggests the overall structure of the storm may take some time to develop later this week and into the weekend. Some model guidance shows erratic movement across the western Caribbean Sea before the system moves into the southern Gulf. Other model guidance shows the system never making it into the southern Gulf. Long time viewers and readers know this is totally normal at this stage of development. We simply won’t have a good grasp on exactly where the developing system will move until the storm has actually developed. Interests across the Gulf region from Texas to Florida along with interests in Mexico, Belize, Honduras, and Cuba should keep an eye on this system over the next few days.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOCALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… It has been quite some time since south Alabama and northwest Florida have had a severe weather risk of any kind. The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana in a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for Wednesday into early Thursday. Most spots across the region will simply have rain at times and maybe some thunder. There is a low-end risk of a tornado or two or gusty winds in any storms that can become stronger. I will have more information about this developing risk in the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have another update posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning in the next RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a nice Monday evening!
Low temperatures Tuesday morning will mostly be in the upper 50s and 60s. Scattered to numerous showers will occur overnight south of a line from Mobile, AL to Andalusia, AL, with only a few rain showers expected just to the north of this line. pic.twitter.com/xeIBwMVJur
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) November 11, 2024
It has been a LONG time since our local area has had a severe weather risk of any kind.
Wednesday, November 13 will feature a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk. Most spots will simply have rain Wed. into Thu.
A couple of brief tornadoes and gusty storms possible. pic.twitter.com/JlCkC7BtJ4
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) November 11, 2024
Rain continues across coastal counties at midday. Probably will see a gradual expansion of scattered showers into the afternoon hours… pic.twitter.com/q0QhsX4b1M
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) November 11, 2024
