DRIER, COOLER WEEKEND COMING UP… Storms possible today into tomorrow morning. Drier, cooler air arrives for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday look quite nice and quite sunny.
SCATTERED STORMS LATER TODAY; HURRICANE TO DEVELOP IN CARIBBEAN SEA… Rain chances will increase throughout the day on this Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has included part of our local area in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for today into tonight. This risk zone is in place due to a low-end potential of a tornado or two with damaging winds being possible in the strongest of the storms. MOST communities locally will not have tornado or damaging wind issues today. Thunderstorms will continue to be possible tonight and into early tomorrow morning before drier weather arrives for Thursday afternoon, Friday, and Saturday. Cooler, drier conditions will persist through the weekend before more rain chances next week.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS EVENING… 2PM to 8PM is the main window for the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across south Alabama or northwest Florida. Odds are we will come through this event with no major issues. I expect rain and perhaps loud thunderstorms at times over the next 24 hours. Have a way to receive warnings today into tonight, just in case we have one or two storms that ramp up to severe levels.
90% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN CARIBBEAN SEA… The tropical disturbance moving into the western Caribbean Sea, now branded as INVEST 99L, has a 90 percent chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next few days. The system will likely have some erratic movement over the next few days as the system slows down in the western Caribbean Sea northeast of the Honduras coast. Big question marks remain as to where the system will ultimately end up, but the focal zone (unfortunately) appears to be on Florida next week. INVEST 99L may become a powerful hurricane this weekend as the storm slowly moves northwest through the Caribbean Sea. It is too early to speculate how strong the storm may be once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. It is also too early to completely rule out local impacts in Alabama, although most of the model guidance currently suggests impacts well to our south. This is something I will be carefully monitoring over the next few days.
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See all the details in your Wednesday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!
STORMS AT TIMES THIS EVENING… Isolated strong storms may become possible later today, particularly across western sections of southwest Alabama.
MOST spots will simply have rain and perhaps some thunder over the next 24 hours.
High temperatures will be in the upper-70s today.
Have a nice Wednesday!
Isolated to scattered showers and warm weather prevails as we head through tonight. Overnight lows fall into the middle to upper 60's for most locations. Expect best rain chances to remain across southeastern Mississippi tonight. pic.twitter.com/Fuiq9Frqkx
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) November 12, 2024
90% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN CARIBBEAN… The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 90% chance of a named tropical storm developing in the western Caribbean Sea over the next few days. A tropical disturbance (now branded as INVEST 99L) is located near Jamaica this evening, moving west. The environment ahead of the system supports intensification, potentially rapid intensification, into a hurricane later this week or into the weekend. Most of the longer range model guidance shows the system moving north into the southern Gulf next week. Too early to know where the system ends up, but model trends have (unfortunately) trended toward Florida today. Not a good scenario if that pans out. Watching details carefully. Join me in the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video tomorrow morning at 7:15AM for the very latest information.
