COOLER WEATHER COMING LATER THIS WEEK… Drier, cooler conditions are coming later this week after a cold front moves through our region. High temperatures will be in the mid-70s by Friday and Saturday.
FEW SHOWERS TODAY; LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK WED. INTO THU. MORNING… Mostly cloudy skies with a few sprinkles and showers are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Tuesday. Today will be similar to yesterday in that scattered sprinkles and showers will be the norm until the early afternoon hours when drier conditions will prevail. High temperatures will be in the upper-70s and near the 80 degree mark. We have a low-end severe weather setup tomorrow into Thursday, meaning most spots probably will NOT have severe weather issues. We’re also monitoring a tropical disturbance moving westward through the Caribbean Sea.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WED. EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING… It has been quite some time since we have had any sort of severe weather risk across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Tomorrow into Thursday morning, the Storm Prediction Center has included parts of southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone. This means the risk is quite marginal (or low) in nature. Widespread severe storms are not expected, but one or two tornadoes and storms will gusty winds will be possible. I am still refining the timing details, but it looks like the evening and overnight hours will be when this low-end risk will maximize across our area. Again, most of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida will be totally fine. This is a sign that our fall severe weather season may be about to ramp up in the coming weeks as this could be the first of several risk zones in the weeks ahead.
60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA… This hurricane season just won’t end. The National Hurricane Center indicates that a tropical disturbance located near Hispaniola and Jamaica will continue moving westward over the next few days. This system has a 60% chance of becoming a named tropical storm once it moves into the western Caribbean Sea near the coast of Honduras. Longer range model guidance shows the system moving northward toward the Gulf of Mexico. NO one can say where this system will ultimately end up, but this is yet another tropical hotspot we will need to monitor over the next few days.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Tuesday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!
FEW SHOWERS TODAY; MORE RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT… Scattered sprinkles and showers are expected at times over the next several hours ahead of drier conditions later this evening.
Another round of rain is expected tomorrow night into Thursday morning with cooler temps arriving on Thursday due to the passage of a cold front.
🌧️ 1145pm – Light rain showers continue to impact the coastal communities late this evening. Expect off and on rain showers throughout the overnight hours and into early Tuesday. #mobwx pic.twitter.com/kdpWlDJPwb
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) November 12, 2024
HURRICANE SEASON NOT DONE YET; TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM IN CARIBBEAN… Usually, November is a quiet month in the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Not this year. After Hurricane Rafael last week, it looks like the Caribbean Sea may have another tropical storm developing later this week or into the upcoming weekend. Odds of development have considerably increased today. The National Hurricane Center indicates the chances of a named tropical storm developing are at a 60% chance.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST… Right now, the tropical disturbance slated to move into the western Caribbean Sea is currently situated near and just south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The disturbance is producing disorganized rain and thunderstorms. The disturbance will move over Jamaica tonight into tomorrow before emerging in the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center indicates “Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down and meander through the weekend.”
LONG RANGE IDEAS FOR WHERE THE DISTURBANCE ENDS UP… The odds of the developing tropical system ending up in the Gulf of Mexico are fairly high, but not completely certain. The short-term prognosis of the system suggests the overall structure of the storm may take some time to develop later this week and into the weekend. Some model guidance shows erratic movement across the western Caribbean Sea before the system moves into the southern Gulf. Other model guidance shows the system never making it into the southern Gulf. Long time viewers and readers know this is totally normal at this stage of development. We simply won’t have a good grasp on exactly where the developing system will move until the storm has actually developed. Interests across the Gulf region from Texas to Florida along with interests in Mexico, Belize, Honduras, and Cuba should keep an eye on this system over the next few days.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOCALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… It has been quite some time since south Alabama and northwest Florida have had a severe weather risk of any kind. The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana in a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for Wednesday into early Thursday. Most spots across the region will simply have rain at times and maybe some thunder. There is a low-end risk of a tornado or two or gusty winds in any storms that can become stronger. I will have more information about this developing risk in the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have another update posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning in the next RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a nice Monday evening!
