Tropical Depression 18 has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Rafael, located just south of Jamaica this afternoon in the Caribbean Sea. Rain is likely later this week into the upcoming weekend due to Tropical Storm Rafael across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida.
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) November 4, 2024
Tropical Depression 18 is located just south of Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea. TD18 will likely become a tropical storm this afternoon or this evening. When that happens, it will take the name "Rafael." pic.twitter.com/cASbWg5Sva
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) November 4, 2024
PTC18 has organized and is now a Tropical Depression. The system is expected to become a tropical storm today.
Hurricane Warning up for Cayman Islands. Hurricane Watch for western Cuba.
TD18 will be in the Gulf by Wednesday evening. Specific track confidence is low after that. pic.twitter.com/cqIzidrigm
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) November 4, 2024
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK… Multiple chances of rain are ahead over the next several days. Rain chances will peak midweek, but there is a potential for rain chances to be adjusted higher this weekend depending on what happens with the developing tropical system in the Caribbean Sea.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY; PTC18 TO MOVE TOWARD GULF… Our weather pattern will become more unsettled in the days ahead with multiple chances of rain. Today, a few light rain showers will be possible at times, particularly this morning in parts of west Alabama. Most locales across the region today will remain dry. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-80s today. We are tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 in the Caribbean Sea today. The system is expected to become a tropical storm today. When that happens, it will take the name “Rafael.” Direct local impacts from the developing system will be possible later this week.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… No significant changes from last evening. Direct local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida may happen Thursday, Friday, or into the upcoming weekend, depending on the exact future track of this developing storm. The most likely scenario is for our area to have increased chances of rain Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, into Saturday as the system flings in deep tropical moisture from the south. Any rainfall locally is a major benefit at this point as ongoing drought conditions continue to worsen. The current guidance shows the inner core of the system decaying once it reaches the central or northern Gulf of Mexico due to a high amount of atmospheric shear. This shear will likely keep the system in check so that intensification into a major hurricane does not happen. That isn’t a guarantee, but it is a likelihood at this point. In addition to increased rain chances, there will be a high risk of rip currents at all local beaches this week. Other impacts like high winds and tornadoes are much less certain at this point. There are many scenarios on the table that would keep those threats minimized, but we can’t say that for sure just yet. Please check back in for updates over the next few days.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR CAYMAN ISLANDS; TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA… The confusing “potential tropical cyclone” designation is basically in place for situations like what we have now. The system in the southern Caribbean Sea does not yet have convection organized enough for the system to be classified as a tropical depression or tropical storm. The PTC designation allows the National Hurricane Center to issue needed watches and warnings ahead of the storm actually forming. In this case, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for all of Jamaica. In addition, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch will likely be needed for northwestern Cuba later today.
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See all the details in your Monday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!
