HISTORIC HURRICANE DORIAN LASHING THE BAHAMAS; HOT & SUNNY WEEK AHEAD LOCALLY… Hurricane Dorian continues to bring 180+ mph wind gusts to Grand Bahama Island and other minor islands in the northern part of The Bahamas. The forward speed of this relentless hurricane has significantly decreased (as expected) ahead of a northerly turn that the system is expected to start late tonight or on Tuesday. Let me be clear: While there are uncertainties as to when or if Dorian will make landfall in Florida and/or Georgia or the Carolinas, confidence remains very high that Alabama and northwest Florida will have no major effects from this powerful hurricane. I have no data to suggest any direct local impacts at this point in our local area. I am not expecting this to change. Why? There is a trough in the upper atmosphere located over the midwestern U.S. that is going to “call” Dorian to the north and ultimately northeast over the next few days. This trough will act as a hedge of protection for our local area, flinging Dorian away. See more details about Dorian and the tropics below. There could be a few storms around this afternoon and this evening across the local area, but the big weather headline locally this week will be the building heat across our region. High temperatures by Thursday may make a run at the 100 degree mark. Let’s look at details…
MOST TO STAY DRY & HOT FOR LABOR DAY LOCALLY… Mostly sunny skies are likely today with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s across the region. There could be a few showers and perhaps a few storms around this afternoon into this evening. Most of us will remain dry and hot throughout the day. We’ll call it a 10-20% chance of showers and storms. No severe weather is expected today or at any point in the next few days.
H-O-T FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK… Temperatures will climb into the upper-90s by Wednesday and Thursday. Some spots may hit 100° on Thursday afternoon. A large dome of high pressure will be in control of our weather pattern, keeping us dry and hot this week. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be close to zero Tuesday through Friday.
DORIAN CAUSING CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE IN THE BAHAMAS… Hurricane Dorian continues to decimate parts of the northern Bahamas on this Labor Day Monday morning. The damage photos and videos I’ve seen from the Abaco Islands are horrendous, showing catastrophic damage in many areas. Our thoughts and prayers are with the people of The Bahamas this morning as the fury of Dorian continues there.
DORIAN: FORECAST PATH… All folks from the Florida Peninsula northward into eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and the eastern half of North Carolina need to CLOSELY monitor the progress of Hurricane Dorian. While the official forecast center line from the National Hurricane Center keeps the core of Dorian just offshore in the days ahead with a possible landfall in North Carolina, no one (truly, no one!) knows if landfall will happen in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina. A landfall along the eastern coast of Florida IS still possible, despite earlier positive model trends. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Atlantic coast of Florida because of this possibility and because of the other possibility of still having hurricane force winds even if the center of the eye of Dorian never crosses the coast. Hurricane Watches may become necessary for parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina in the days ahead.
TROPICS: LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a 40-50% chance of a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico this week and moving westward into northern Mexico. Their official discussion reads, “A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.” This system, regardless of formal development, will not affect south Alabama or northwest Florida.
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE NEAR CABO VERDE ISLANDS… NHC says there is an 80% chance that a tropical storm will form just west of the Cabo Verde Islands this week. Their discussion on this: “Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low pressure system located about 150 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.” Keep in mind, this is very near the African continent and far away from North America. This system is likely to move northwest in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean before fading away in a few days. U.S. impacts are currently highly unlikely, based on the latest model trends.
TROPICS: DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF BERMUDA… There is a 40-50% chance that a tropical storm will form between Puerto Rico and Bermuda later this week. NHC says, “A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this morning. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.” Impacts are not expected for the United States from this potential tropical storm at this time.
APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I’ll have a video update posted later today about Hurricane Dorian. Please let me know if you have any questions. Have a great Labor Day Monday!
