HURRICANE DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTH; NOW TRACKING MORE TROPICAL STORM FERNAND… The eyewall of Hurricane Dorian has finally lifted away from Grand Bahama Island and is moving northwest at approximately 3-4 miles per hour. Forward speed is expected to gradually pick up over the next 24 hours. There is much higher confidence today that the core of Dorian will very likely miss the Florida coast and remain just offshore, liking sparing the region of the very high winds that are happening near the center of the storm. Dorian could bring tropical storm- or hurricane-force winds to parts of South Carolina and North Carolina in the days ahead before it moves out into the Atlantic. We’re also monitoring newly formed Tropical Storm Fernand in the west central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Just like Hurricane Dorian, Fernand will not affect Alabama or northwest Florida. Elsewhere in the tropics, we’re also keeping tabs on an area of low pressure near Bermuda that won’t affect the U.S. and multiple tropical waves emerging off the African continent that could become Cape Verde-type hurricanes in the days ahead. Let’s start by looking at our local weather…
GORGEOUS, SUNNY TUESDAY; QUITE HOT… The radar display across south Alabama and northwest Florida remains completely quiet. Temperatures are in the low-90s across our region at the time this video is being produced (1PM CDT on Tuesday). I expect high temperatures to peak in the mid-90s today. No rain is expected through Friday locally.
BUILDING HEAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS… High temperatures easily may reach the 100 degree mark on Thursday as a large ridge of high pressure builds in. High temperatures Wednesday through Saturday will almost certainly be in the mid- to upper-90s across the region. Full sunshine is expected through Friday. There could be a few clouds around on Saturday, but I expect the region to remain dry.
ALL CLEAR FOR LOCAL AREA FROM DORIAN AND FROM FERNAND… Hurricane Dorian is now moving northwest at approximately 3 miles per hour. The system will move north over the next day or so before curving to the northeast ahead of an upper-level trough. We can definitively say with 100% confidence that Hurricane Dorian will not affect Alabama or northwest Florida. ALL CLEAR from Dorian for our local area. The same can be said for Tropical Storm Fernand, currently in the western Gulf southeast of Texas. That system will move into Mexico in the days ahead. No local issues from Tropical Storm Fernand.
DORIAN 1PM TUESDAY ADVISORY… Hurricane Dorian is now a category 2 hurricane with 110 mph sustained winds as of 1PM EDT. The center of Dorian is located at 27.4N and 78.6W, right over Grand Bahama Island. This is about 110 miles east of Fort Pierce, Florida. Dorian’s forward speed has increased today, as expected. The hurricane is moving northwest at 3 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure up to 959 millibars, indicating some weakening has happened. This is still a powerful hurricane that should be treated as such.
DORIAN A BIT WEAKER, BUT NOW LARGER… Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. The Hurricane Warnings and Watches are in effect for a reason and are not totally precautionary.
UPDATE ON HURRICANE WARNINGS & WATCHES… Hurricane Watches and Warnings are in effect from Jupiter Inlet, Florida all the way northward to Duck, North Carolina, including all of the Georgia and South Carolina coastal zones.
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND IN WESTERN GULF… Just in as of 1PM CDT on Tuesday, Tropical Depression 7 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand. This system is expected to move westward into northeast Mexico over the next few days. No impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida.
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF CABO VERDE ISLANDS… NHC says there is an 90% chance that a tropical storm will form just west of the Cabo Verde Islands this week. Their discussion on this: “Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low pressure system located about 150 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.” Keep in mind, this is very near the African continent and far away from North America. This system is likely to move northwest in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean before fading away in a few days. U.S. impacts are currently highly unlikely, based on the latest model trends.
TROPICS: NEW TROPICAL WAVE TO EMERGE FROM AFRICA… From NHC: “A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward.” NHC gives this system a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm later this week as it moves westward.
TROPICS: DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC APPROACHING BERMUDA… There is a 40-50% chance that a tropical storm will form between Puerto Rico and Bermuda later this week. NHC says, “A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this morning. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.” Impacts are not expected for the United States from this potential tropical storm at this time.
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See the graphics, details, and more information about Hurricane Dorian in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great evening!
