ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY; INTERMITTENT RAIN THIS WEEKEND… There could be a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening across parts of southwest Alabama, especially across inland communities. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk for these areas. Gusty winds and hail up to the size of a quarter will be the main concerns. The overall tornado risk remains very low. We’re also looking ahead to Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, when more rain and storms may happen. It certainly won’t be an all day washout this weekend, but we inevitably will have some showers and storms around at times. We are also looking ahead to the end of the upcoming week when record-setting heat may build in to our region. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 1 (out of 5), low-end severe weather risk zone for parts of our area valid this afternoon into tonight. Isolated stronger storms may produce gusty winds and large hail, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours on this Friday. The main risk of stronger storms will happen across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Wilcox counties in our local area with the risk zone extending northward into much of central Alabama. Let me be clear that the overall tornado risk remains very low. This risk zone has been introduced primarily because of the risk of damaging straight line winds that could knock down a few trees if any of the storms can ramp up briefly. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected.
LEVEL 1, LOW-END RISK… What does a Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk mean? This means that widespread severe storms are not expected, but we can’t completely rule out an isolated stronger storm or two. The greatest risk of stronger storms today will happen across inland areas of south Alabama locally.
LOCATIONS INVOLVED IN LEVEL 1 RISK… The following locales are included in the low-end risk zone today: Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Chatom, Wagerville, Leroy, Vinegar Bend, Whatley, Coffeeville, Butler, Gilbertown, Silas, Toxey, Hybart, Beatrice, Camden, Pine Hill, Oak Hill, Millers Ferry, and Sweet Water. We also note that many locations in central and north Alabama are included in this low-end risk zone, including Montgomery, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, Lake Martin, Smith Lake, Jasper, Clanton, Prattville, Wetumpka, Selma, Demopolis, Livingston, Aliceville, Fayette, Cullman, Oneonta, Boaz, Centre, Heflin, Mt. Cheaha, Centreville, Marion, Eutaw, Greensboro, Hoover, Montevallo, Leeds, Oxford, Talladega, Sylacauga, Hayneville, Alexander City, Roanoke, and surrounding areas.
MAIN RISKS: WIND & HAIL… The overall tornado risk is not at all elevated today or tonight. Could there be a brief, spin-up tornado or two? Perhaps, but even that possibility remains questionable due to a primarily omnidirectional wind flow as opposed to high amounts of helicity. Clearly, the main concerns today will be damaging wind gusts capable of knocking down a few trees and large hail up to the size of a quarter. Flash flooding is generally not expected to be a big deal as storms likely won’t be training over the same areas.
WHAT MOST LOCALES CAN EXPECT TODAY… For most, this will simply be a day featuring rain at times. Vast majority of us probably WON’T have severe weather issues today or tonight. Rain could be heavy at times, especially across central Alabama. The greatest rain chances today into tonight will also happen in the northwestern part of our local area in parts of Clarke, Washington, and Monroe counties. Rain amounts will generally be less than a half inch in total locally with the greater rain amounts likely to happen to our north and west.
SHOWERS & STORMS AT TIMES ON SATURDAY… Rain chances remain in the 40-50% range on Saturday. Showers and storms will likely pop up after lunch and produce scattered areas of heavy rain. There could be gusty (15-30mph) winds but widespread severe weather is not expected. We have been forced to significantly revise the temperature forecast higher, with highs on Saturday now expected to be in the upper-70s. It now appears, based on the latest model guidance, that temperatures won’t be as cool as previously thought because the cold air from the north may not be in place as far south as guidance previously suggested.
RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES ON SUNDAY TOO… Sunday will be quite similar to Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms in place across our region. Storms will be most likely to form in the P.M. hours. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid-70s, again about 5-10 degrees warmer than previously thought.
MORE STORMS MONDAY… We keep the chance of rain and storms in the forecast for Monday. High temperatures will be in the upper-70s in most spots. Rain and storms will be most numerous in the P.M. hours, very similar to previous days.
LOWER RAIN CHANCES BY MIDWEEK… Tuesday through Thursday of the upcoming week look increasingly warm and increasingly dry. There is a chance most spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida may make a run at 90 degrees by Thursday. That’s not a typo – 90 degrees in late March. That would be record-breaking. We’ll keep you posted on if that possibility turns into a probability.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
CARDS FOR THE ELDERLY… If you missed our detailed post last evening about our new RedZone Weather Cards for the Elderly program, be sure to visit the link below for all the information. This is an opportunity for students and adults across our region to write encouraging notes to elderly people currently under lockdown in local nursing homes due to the ongoing COVID-19 situation. Here is the link: https://www.facebook.com/400827163408962/posts/1525439774281023/
See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video. Have a nice weekend!
