**SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATER TODAY**
STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT… All modes of severe weather, including strong & long track tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will become likely across parts of the Deep South, including our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida, later today into tonight. Happy Easter! The greatest risk of tornadoes and severe weather across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen from 3PM today to 3AM Monday. Please have multiple ways to get urgent weather warnings today into tonight. Take action to protect your life by putting on a helmet or makeshift helmet if a tornado warning is needed for your specific location later today.
FEW SHOWERS & STORMS THIS MORNING… There could be a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two across the region over the next few hours. I expect most spots locally to remain dry into the early afternoon hours.
SEVERE STORMS TO OUR NORTH & WEST FIRST… Severe storms are likely to fire up to our west across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, extending into north and central Alabama. These storms will develop in those areas first. The storms that fire up across eastern Louisiana and southeast Mississippi are the ones we need to monitor carefully. I will be particularly focused on potential supercell storms firing up across southeast MS later this evening.
A NOTE ABOUT RISK LEVELS & COLORS… The following four paragraphs are strictly informational. I don’t want anyone to get so fixated on the specific color or risk level a specific place is involved in that we forget the overall, major severe weather risk for the entire local area. The risk levels and colors are generalized guidelines for where the greater threats are more likely to be.
LEVEL 4 RISK IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA… This remains the same from yesterday. For our local area, the Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk is in place for parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo and Wilcox counties. This zone currently includes Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Coffeeville, Whatley, Millry, Chatom, Yarbo, St. Stephens, Gilbertown, Toxey, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Mt. Sterling, Sweet Water, Dixons Mills, Morvin, Nanafalia, Pine Hill, Camden, and Millers Ferry.
EXPANDED LEVEL 4 RISK TO OUR NORTH… The Level 4 (out of 5) risk extends northward into much of north and central Alabama, including: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Northport, Hoover, Montevallo, Clanton, Selma, Marion, Centreville, Linden, Demopolis, York, Livingston, Eutaw, Moundville, Greensboro, Gordo, Aliceville, Fayette, Hamilton, Vernon, Jasper, Double Springs, Russellville, Clanton, Oneonta, Leeds, Gadsden, Talladega, Centre, Cullman, Decatur, Boaz, Alexander City, Lake Martin, Fort Payne, and surrounding areas. Jackson (MS), Starkville (MS), Oxford (MS), Meridian (MS), Monroe (LA), and McComb (MS) are also included in this higher risk zone.
UPDATED: LEVEL 3 RISK LOCALLY… Other than previously mentioned locales in Clarke and Washington counties, the rest of us locally are involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk. Note that a Level 3 risk is uncommon (2-3 per year, local average) with scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms being likely today. Keep in mind, I simply cannot type out all locales. I do my best to include as many as possible. If you see a surrounding community, odds are you’re included in this zone. Level 3 risk: Mobile, Pensacola, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Wilmer, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Stockton, Loxley, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Foley, Elberta, Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Lenox, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Owassa, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Red Level, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Wing, Straughn, Gantt, Lockhart, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Frisco City, Excel, McIntosh, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Jay, Milton, Pace, Munson, Allentown, Chumuckla, Laurel Hill, Destin, Navarre, Crestview, and surrounding areas.
UPDATED: LEVEL 3 RISK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… Several communities across southeast Alabama and east-central Alabama are involved in the Level 3 risk as well. This includes places like Auburn, Montgomery, Tuskegee, Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Samson, Geneva, Abbeville, Luverne, Troy, Clio, Eufaula, Union Springs, Phenix City, Valley, and Lanett.
STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Supercell thunderstorms that become discrete and isolated later this evening into tonight will have plenty of fuel (instability), plenty of moisture (high dewpoints), plenty of shear, and plenty of helicity (veering of the winds as you go higher in the atmosphere) that will allow for the development of potentially significant and strong tornadoes. While there is uncertainty as to if supercells will become likely locally, there is currently a strong possibility of this happening. ALL tornadoes, big and small, are serious. Strong tornadoes tend to stay on the ground longer than their “weaker” counterparts, however.
DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE… In addition to the pronounced tornado threat, I also am concerned about damaging “straight line” winds. The overall setup will likely feature discrete storms out ahead of a squall line that will move through to bring the severe weather threat to a close late this evening or perhaps very early in the morning hours of Monday. Damaging wind would be the main concern in this squall line.
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE… Discrete storms tend to also be large hail producers. If we get a group of supercell thunderstorms moving across our area, don’t be surprised to see large hail (perhaps as large as half dollars or golf balls) being a major concern in addition to the tornado risk.
BE READY: TORNADO HELMETS… It cannot be stressed enough that everyone (both children AND adults) needs some type of head protection, whether that is a helmet or a makeshift helmet like a cooking pot. Emerging research continues to show that wearing a helmet during a tornado that strikes your location greatly increases your chance of survival. Why? Because majority of fatal injuries that happen due to tornadoes happen because of blunt force trauma to the head/skull region. Thus, if we can mitigate this hazard in any way, we should. That’s where helmets and cooking pots come into the equation. Anything is better than nothing in this case. This means if you can grab a football, baseball, softball, bicycle, motorcycle, ballistics, or welding helmet and put it on, it will highly likely help you survive a tornado impact. Note this helmet deal isn’t just for children. It applies to everyone, no matter if you’re 8, 28, or 88 years old. Everyone needs a severe weather helmet. I cannot recommend them to you enough! See the full tornado preparedness post here.
BE THE HERO… The National Weather Service has launched an awareness campaign entitled, “Be The Hero.” The truth is you can absolutely be a hero and inform those folks around you that pay no attention to the world of weather. I guarantee you (sadly) there are folks all around that have heard NOTHING about this significant severe weather threat setting up for tomorrow. The way we combat that is to “be the hero” and let your friends and family know about this risk. Call them, text them, tag them, pass it along to them, I really don’t care HOW you tell your folks as long as we make as many folks aware of this risk as possible.
BE READY: COVID-19 & TORNADO WARNING GUIDELINES… We are in a weird time when the guidelines on what to do during a tornado warning versus what to do regarding social distancing because of COVID-19 may seem to conflict. If you, your family, or your friends use a community underground storm shelter, please take the opportunity to read the recommended guidelines established by our local National Weather Service offices and the state health department. Basically, the tornado warning takes precedence over social distancing when/if necessary as the tornado is the more immediate threat. Here is the post outlining those details.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SUNNY & WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… Once the storms clear out early Monday morning, much better weather is ahead for the daytime hours of Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s with plenty of sunshine each day.
RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… Our next chance of rain after the storms today into the overnight hours will happen late Tuesday into Wednesday when scattered showers will become possible. For now, the overall risk of severe weather with that upcoming system remains very low. We’ll keep watching, but for now, it looks like a minor rain event.
CARDS FOR THE ELDERLY… Please don’t forget to take advantage of our RedZone Weather Cards for the Elderly program. We want to be able to safely send as many encouraging cards as possible to our local senior adults in nursing homes. Be sure to visit the link below for all the information. This is an opportunity for students and adults across our region to write encouraging notes to elderly people currently under lockdown in local nursing homes due to the ongoing COVID-19 situation. Here is the link.
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. If and when tornado warnings become required for our local area, we will go into live video mode to bring you the very latest. Stay safe!
