SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT; LEVEL 3 RISK LOCALLY… Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible on Sunday, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours, as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) approaches from the west. The main concern locally will likely be damaging winds capable of knocking down numerous trees across the region. There also could be a few tornadoes involved, although at this particular moment, it certainly seems like damaging winds will end up being the biggest issue locally. That could change in the hours ahead as we get more model guidance in, meaning the tornado risk MAY increase between now and Sunday evening. Please be sure to check back in with me between now and when this event starts so you’ll be up-to-date on the hazard risk levels. Before we get to Sunday, we have a nice Friday on tap with high temperatures in the low-80s. Showers and thunderstorms will become possible at times on Saturday, although the severe weather issues will likely be held to Sunday into the very early morning hours of Monday. We’re also looking ahead to the middle part of next week when we may have yet another round of severe storms. Let’s look at all of the details.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY; FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT… Most locales will remain dry on this Friday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will be in the low-80s. Cloud coverage will increase from west to east across the region primarily this afternoon into this evening. There could be a few showers late this evening, probably well after sunset. The greatest chance of rain before midnight will be over our west Alabama counties in areas west of the Alabama River.
SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… Rain and general (non-severe) thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day on Saturday into Saturday night. High temperatures will again be in the low-80s. Keep tabs on the radar throughout the day as storms will be capable of producing cloud-to-ground lightning. Again, we’re not expecting severe weather issues on Saturday. Storms could produce locally heavy rain at times, but no major issues are expected on Saturday.
MORE SHOWERS & STORMS EARLY SUNDAY… Sunday morning will be similar to Saturday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms locally. I expect most of these showers and storms across our local area on Sunday morning to be pretty tame with little to no issues in the way of severe weather locally. There likely will be a cluster of heavy rain and thunderstorms to our north ongoing early (3AM to 9AM) Sunday morning. This area of storms will move west to east across the central part of Alabama, bringing with it a chance of strong to severe storms there. Note this area of storms is different than the one that will move across our area later in the day.
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY P.M. INTO MONDAY… The most likely scenario for our forecast revolves around a cluster of storms, known as a mesoscale convective system (MCS), developing to our west across Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning hours of Sunday. This MCS will move from west to east across the Gulf Coast region, bringing with it a chance of strong to severe storms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated that there could be a few supercell thunderstorms out ahead of or perhaps on the leading edge of this MCS, thus potentially increasing the tornado risk locally. This is something we’ll be looking for in the model guidance over the next day or so ahead of this severe weather potential.
PRIMARY CONCERNS: DAMAGING WINDS & TORNADOES… The main hazard across south Alabama and northwest Florida will be damaging wind gusts capable of knocking down trees. Tornadoes will be possible as well, although there is less confidence at this moment about the tornado threat compared to the higher risk of damaging winds. Keep in mind that the tornado hazard risk will likely have to be adjusted in the hours ahead. Also, a “slightly lower” risk of tornadoes compared to damaging straight line winds may end up being more of a technicality as damaging straight line winds can sometimes do just as serious of damage compared to a tornado. Hail and isolated areas of flash flooding will also be possible.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… This is QUITE similar to last week, but this is now applicable for Sunday, April 19 to Monday, April 20. 2PM on Sunday to 2AM on Monday looks to be the timeframe when strong to severe storms will be MOST likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. 5PM to 10PM Sunday will be the core risk time.
LEVEL 3 RISK REMAINS IN PLACE… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone, meaning tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding will all be possible. Note that even if your specific town isn’t included in this list, if you see surrounding towns or cities involved, you’re still included in the risk zone. Level 3 risk as of Friday morning: Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach.
LEVEL 3 RISK TO OUR NORTH & EAST… We note that all of southeast Alabama and much of central Alabama is also involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone. This includes Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, Troy, Elba, Abbeville, Daleville, Eufaula, Montgomery, Auburn, Tuskegee, Alexander City, Prattville, Clanton, Livingston, Marion, Butler, Hayneville, Union Springs, and surrounding areas.
NICER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK… Early model guidance points to nicer, quieter weather with warm temperatures in place for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of the upcoming week.
MORE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… There are early indications that we could have yet another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms on Thursday of the upcoming week. That would be Thursday, April 23. We need to get through the severe weather potential on Sunday evening into early Monday and then we’ll start focusing on Thursday. Be ready for another round of storms. This is primary severe weather season in Alabama and northwest Florida, through the end of the month. Having concurrent severe weather potential days like this is not abnormal.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, BEFORE we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I’ll have more updates for you in the RedZone Weather app in the hours ahead and this weekend. I will have another detailed update for you later this evening. See you then!
