SUNNY, WARM DAYS AHEAD; VIRAL FAKE NEWS HURRICANE POSTS… Our weather pattern is set to be warm, sunny, and nice across south Alabama and northwest Florida through Tuesday. High temperatures today are peaking in the upper-80s with temperatures near 90° expected on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. There could be a few showers on Wednesday as a weakening frontal boundary moves through, but impacts should be limited to occasional rain and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Severe weather is not expected at this time.
STRONG STORMS WELL TO OUR NORTH RIGHT NOW… Severe thunderstorms are happening this evening across the central part of Tennessee where multiple severe thunderstorm warnings and a severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect. We also note the far northern part of Alabama is involved in this severe thunderstorm watch, including Laudedale, Limestone, Madison, and Jackson counties. These storms will remain well to the north of our area.
DON’T TRUST FAKE NEWS WEATHER POSTS… I have seen quite a few folks sharing “fake news” weather model posts today about a supposed hurricane being in the Gulf of Mexico in about two weeks. It always fascinates me how inaccurate, fake weather posts spread like wildfire on a social network that supposedly prides itself on doing “fact checks” on fake news posts. That is a topic for another day, but what I can tell you about this fake news post is there is a very, very high chance that there will be not be a hurricane in the Gulf in May. There just is no reliable data to support that idea, despite what the alarmists on social media would have us all believe. There is a near certain chance we won’t be dealing with a hurricane along the northern Gulf Coast anytime in the next 2-3 weeks.
CAN’T TRUST MODELS THAT FAR OUT… So what’s all the fuss about? Weather pages across social media (who are not trained meteorologists, I might add) post single run, single image model views for clickbait purposes. One run of the GFS (shown in the video attached) highlighted the potential for a tropical storm or hurricane **on the eastern Pacific side of Mexico**. (not even in the Gulf of Mexico!) We don’t make forecasts based on one model NOR do I hardly ever even look at model data 2 weeks out. Model reliability is just about useless in that range. Long-time viewers and readers know I always say: 7 days out is the maximum for forecast reliability that meets our standards. It’s foolish to post things from a model 384 hours out. Absolutely foolish. Yet the alarmists who want you to be scared of your mind do it frequently. Don’t trust fake news posts!
APP… If you want a perspective from a meteorologist born and raised in south Alabama that will never be an alarmist, download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed video and discussion will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday. See you then. Have a great evening!
