SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE MIDWEEK… The Storm Prediction Center has included a large swath of the Deep South, including the entire local area, in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Wednesday, March 17. There is high chance outlook adjustments and upgrades may become necessary in the days ahead as model guidance is quite bullish on the potential for severe storms, including tornadoes. There is, unfortunately, absolutely no way to give specifics this far out ahead of the event as to when and where the greatest threat of severe storms will happen. Right now, SPC includes nearly all of Alabama and northwest Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and the western half of Tennessee in their expansive Level 2 risk zone. The big headline as of now is: Please be aware of the potential for severe storms locally Wednesday of the upcoming week. Tornadoes will be possible. Please check back in over the next few days for more updates as we continue to get more data in to be able to refine the forecast and get more specific on details.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVERNIGHT… The National Weather Service has issued a Dense Fog Advisory valid from 9PM this evening to Noon on Sunday for all coastal counties. This includes Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in addition to the local bays and inlets. “A persistent, unseasonably warm and moist environment supports the development of dense fog tonight which lingers into Sunday morning. Visibilities will likely be 1/4 of a mile or less over land areas. Low visibilities will make driving difficult.”
INCREASING CLOUDS & WARM ON SUNDAY… Cloud coverage will increase on Sunday ahead of a rain chance setting up Sunday night. High temperatures on Sunday will be near the 80 degree mark in many spots, especially across inland areas of southwest Alabama. Temperatures in the 70s are expected closer to the immediate coast on Sunday afternoon.
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY… Rain chances will increase first locally on Sunday evening across southwest Alabama in parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Clarke, and Washington counties. Isolated showers will be possible after 8PM with rain chances slowly increasing across the entire region overnight Sunday night into Monday morning.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… There was some suspicion that Monday could be a severe weather day across parts of the Deep South, but it looks like for vast majority of our local area, there will simply be a chance of rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder at times. Highs on Monday will be in the upper-70s under mostly cloudy skies. Keep the rain gear handy throughout the day on Monday into Tuesday! There is a good chance Tuesday will end up being quite similar to Monday with a chance of rain and storms, with no formal risk of severe weather until Wednesday.
SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY… Details will come into better focus over the next few days, but early model indications and analog guidance supports the potential for a significant round of severe weather for parts of the Deep South on Wednesday. Right now, it looks like the daytime hours of Wednesday, particularly the afternoon hours, could be the timeframe when south Alabama and northwest Florida could have the greatest threat of severe weather. This is highly subject to change in the days ahead. Please check back in the days ahead for updates.
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN… Our weather pattern is about to become a lot more active than the quiet pattern we have been in over the last few weeks. Now is the time to make a severe weather plan if you have not already. Know where you would go and what you would do if a tornado warning is required for your specific location in the weeks ahead. We advise folks to get to the lowest floor of a site-built structure, away from windows and doors, putting as many walls as you possibly can between you and the outside world during a tornado warning. Severe weather helmets are essential during tornado warnings as most tornado-related injuries happen due to trauma to the skull region. Makeshift helmets (like cooking pots!) are helpful if you don’t have some type of helmet close by. Severe weather season peaks in March, April, and early May locally, but we can have tornado warnings ANY month of the year.
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have another forecast update posted by 1PM on Sunday. Be sure to check back with me then for the very latest information. Have a good Saturday night!
