RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES TODAY; SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK WEDNESDAY… Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and on Tuesday ahead of a potentially significant severe weather risk setting up for Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a low-end severe weather risk for parts of central and southwest Alabama TODAY ahead of a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk valid on Wednesday for a big chunk of our local area. There is a chance that a few strong tornadoes may happen Wednesday, although it remains too soon to nail down exactly where the greatest threat for tornadoes will be. Please have multiple ways to get urgent weather warnings on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The greatest chance of strong to severe storms locally will be from 2PM Wednesday to 2AM Thursday. This timeframe will likely be adjusted and refined as we get more reliable data in over the next 48 hours. All of your Monday morning forecast details are below. It is a long post, but most of the post outlines expectations for the severe weather risk on Wednesday.
LOW-END, LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY… I expect vast majority of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida to simply have some rain and thunderstorms at times today. The overall severe weather risk locally TODAY remains low. The Storm Prediction Center has included Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, and Butler counties in south Alabama in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone today. This means that an isolated stronger storm or two will be possible. Most of the storms today will be well under severe limits, but if a cap in the atmosphere erodes, all modes of severe weather would become possible, including a tornado or two.
WHAT TO EXPECT TODAY: RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES… Today will not be an “all day washout” event with heavy rain throughout the day. Rather, this will be a day when a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day. Keep the rain gear handy, however, as showers will continue to be possible into the evening and overnight hours and into Tuesday. High temperatures today will be in the upper-70s in many spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida.
MORE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY; LEVEL 1 RISK… Tomorrow will be quite similar to today with scattered rain and thunderstorms around. High temperatures on Tuesday will again be near the 80 degree mark in many locales across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has included a big chunk of our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk valid for Tuesday. This indicates that widespread severe weather remains unlikely, but a strong (or even severe) storm or two cannot be completely ruled out.
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY… An area of low pressure passing well to our northwest will allow our entire local area to be involved in a warm, volatile sector out ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday. This warm sector will allow for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes may become possible, although it remains too early to pinpoint the area with the greatest risk of experiencing a strong tornado just yet. This is something we will be refining in the forecast over the next 48 hours. In addition to a pronounced tornado threat, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and flash flooding will also be concerns.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY… The 12 hour window when strong to severe storms will be most likely to happen across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will be from 2PM Wednesday to 2AM Thursday. Model guidance has trended toward a later solution compared to previous guidance. There is still quite a bit of time between now and Wednesday, thus more forecast refinements are possible. Please check back in for more updates through Wednesday.
UNCOMMON LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR WEDNESDAY; STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE… The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of southwest Alabama into an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Wednesday, March 17. While it is uncommon to have a Level 3 risk on the day of the severe weather potential, it is quite rare to have a risk this high in the outlook valid 2 days from now. This should underscore the potentially significant severe weather setup that is coming into focus for Wednesday. Long-time viewers and readers know that I intentionally refrain from using hyperbole and hype in our products. There is no need to panic, but there is an urgent need today and Tuesday to make sure you have your severe weather safety plan in place and ready to take action on Wednesday when the weather will likely be active.
A NOTE ABOUT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RISK ZONES… Keep in mind that the following specific severe weather risk zones don’t mean too terribly much once storms actually develop. The higher risk zones do give us a rough idea of where strong to severe storms are MOST likely to happen. Strong tornadoes certainly can happen outside of the bounds of a highest risk zone on a given severe weather day. These zones can and WILL change somewhat before we get to Wednesday. Please be sure to check in over the next few days for more updates.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK… The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of Alabama, parts of northwest Florida, the northern two-thirds of Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Wednesday. A Level 3 (out of 5) risk means that numerous severe storms will be possible, including the potential for a few intense storms that could be particularly damaging.
UPDATED LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… The following locations are included in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk in south Alabama and northwest Florida: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Red Level, Carolina, Gantt, Straughn, Evergreen, Range, Repton, Lenox, Castleberry, Owassa, Burnt Corn, Belleville, Brooklyn, Atmore, Huxford, Poarch, Flomaton, Wawbeek, Canoe, Wallace, Appleton, Brewton, East Brewton, Riverview, Damascus, Dixonville, Wing, Monroeville, Uriah, Excel, Frisco City, Megargal, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Perdue Hill, Beatrice, Old Texas, Thomasville, Coffeeville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Whatley, Gainestown, Chatom, Millry, Leroy, Wagerville, Deer Park, McIntosh, Calvert, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Satsuma, Prichard, Creola, Bay Minette, Tensaw, Stockton, Perdido, Rabun, Lottie, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, and surrounding areas. We also note that many locales across the state just outside of our local area are included: Luverne, Troy, Elba, Auburn, Montgomery, Prattville, Selma, Demopolis, Camden, Butler, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Talladega, Alexander City, Decatur, Gadsden, Anniston, Fayette, Centreville, Jasper, Livingston, Aliceville, Russellville, Moulton, Hamilton, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Cullman, Oneonta, Marion, and surrounding areas.
UPDATED LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK… Several communities in our local area remain involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Wednesday. This zone is expected to have scattered severe storms. It should be noted that tornadoes are still possible in this zone, even though it technically is a “lower risk” zone. Locally, the following communities are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone: Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Montrose, Fairhope, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Pace, Milton, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, and surrounding areas. Dothan, Daleville, Geneva, Abbeville, Eufaula, Phenix City, Seaside, and Freeport are also involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone.
HAVE YOUR TORNADO HELMET READY… It cannot be stressed enough that everyone (both children AND adults) needs some type of head protection during a tornado warning, whether that is a helmet or a makeshift helmet like a cooking pot. Emerging research continues to show that wearing a helmet during a tornado that strikes your location greatly increases your chance of survival. Why? Because the majority of fatal injuries that happen due to tornadoes happen because of blunt force trauma to the head/skull region. Thus, if we can mitigate this hazard in any way, we should. That’s where helmets and cooking pots come into the equation. Anything is better than nothing in this case. This means if you can grab a football, baseball, softball, bicycle, motorcycle, ballistics, or welding helmet and put it on, it will highly likely help you survive a tornado impact. Note this helmet deal isn’t just for children. It applies to everyone, no matter if you’re 8, 28, or 88 years old. Everyone needs a severe weather helmet. I cannot recommend them to you enough! See the full tornado preparedness post from last night here.
BETTER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK… After the severe weather potential on Wednesday, a cold front will move through our region from northwest to southeast Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This cold front will usher in cooler, much drier air into our region. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low- to mid-70s. By Friday, however, most locales will have highs only in the mid-60s. Cooler, drier conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have another detailed update on the Wednesday severe weather situation posted later this evening. Until then, plenty more updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great Monday!
