LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of Alabama into their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Thursday, March 25, 2021. Unfortunately, it appears tornadoes will be a concern across a wide swath of the Deep South yet again just after a significant tornado outbreak last Wednesday. Strong (EF2+) tornadoes will likely be a concern, in addition to the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding. The current thinking is that tornadoes may become possible as early as Thursday afternoon across parts of our local area and points north. Further outlook upgrades and adjustments are likely over the next 48 hours. Please check back in with me for updates, including in the morning video that will be posted in just a few hours.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY & TOMORROW… There is a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for today and on Wednesday for parts of Mississippi and Louisiana. This low-end risk extends into far western parts of Alabama in communities closer to the Alabama-Mississippi state line. I expect most of the issues today and tomorrow to be from heavy rain and flash flooding. The tornado risk through Thursday morning remains low.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… This timeframe is valid for southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. Quite similar to the last severe weather event last Wednesday, the tornado risk may increase early on before transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat later in the risk timeframe. The severe weather risk will extend from 11AM Thursday to 7AM Friday with the tornado risk likely to be greatest in the afternoon hours of Thursday. The damaging wind & tornado risk will likely increase again later in the evening and into the early morning hours of Friday as a line of strong to severe storms crosses our area.
A NOTE ABOUT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RISK ZONES… Keep in mind that the following specific severe weather risk zones don’t mean too terribly much once storms actually develop. The higher risk zones do give us a rough idea of where strong to severe storms are MOST likely to happen. Strong tornadoes certainly can happen outside of the bounds of a highest risk zone on a given severe weather day. These zones can and WILL change somewhat before we get to Wednesday. Please be sure to check in over the next few days for more updates.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE… The greatest tornado risk on Thursday into early Friday morning will likely set up across parts of west Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee. These are the zones where the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone is in place. A Level 3 risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, will be possible. The following locales are involved in the Level 3 risk in our local area: Thomasville, Coffeeville, Millry, Chatom, Campbell, and surrounding areas. The Level 3 risk also includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Butler, Demopolis, Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Marion, Centreville, Hoover, Leeds, Oneonta, Cullman, Jasper, Fayette, Aliceville, Gordo, Hamilton, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Russellville, Decatur, Huntsville, Ardmore, and surrounding areas in northwest Alabama. Many places in Mississippi, including Jackson, Tupelo, Meridian, Hattiesburg, Columbus, Oxford, and Starkville are also involved in the Level 3 risk zone.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE… Farther to the east, a Level 2 (out of 5) risk is in place for several local communities. A Level 2 risk means that scattered severe storms will be possible. The Level 2 risk is in place for these areas locally: Mobile, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Prichard, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Dauphin Island, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Tensaw, Stockton, Stapleton, Loxley, Summerdale, Robertsdale, Foley, Elberta, Magnolia Springs, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola, Century, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Pace, Milton, Jay, Berrydale, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Carolina, Red Level, Straughn, Gantt, Laurel Hill, Crestview, Baker, Milligan, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Niceville, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Lenox, Belleville, Owassa, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Perdue Hill, Megargal, Frisco City, Excel, Gainestown, McIntosh, and surrounding areas. We note that several communities to our east and northeast are also involved in the Level 2 risk: Montgomery, Auburn, Troy, Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, Elba, Abbeville, Daleville, Prattville, Wetumpka, Alexander City, and surrounding areas.
GET THE TORNADO HELMETS READY… It cannot be stressed enough that everyone (both children AND adults) needs some type of head protection during a tornado warning, whether that is a helmet or a makeshift helmet like a cooking pot. Emerging research continues to show that wearing a helmet during a tornado that strikes your location greatly increases your chance of survival. Why? Because the majority of fatal injuries that happen due to tornadoes happen because of blunt force trauma to the head/skull region. Thus, if we can mitigate this hazard in any way, we should. That’s where helmets and cooking pots come into the equation. Anything is better than nothing in this case. This means if you can grab a football, baseball, softball, bicycle, motorcycle, or ballistics helmet and put it on, it will highly likely help you survive a tornado impact. Note this helmet deal isn’t just for children. It applies to everyone, no matter if you’re 8, 28, or 88 years old. Everyone needs a severe weather helmet. I cannot recommend them to you enough! See the full tornado preparedness post from last year here.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, *before* we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next video will be posted by 7:15AM in just a few hours. I will have updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Tuesday!
