TROPICS SET TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE; 70% CHANCE OF NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMING… After about a month of quiet conditions, the Atlantic Basin is likely to become more active with more named storms in the month of August. The National Hurricane Center indicates a tropical wave set to emerge off the western coast of Africa now has a high (70+%) chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days. In addition, another, separate tropical wave located about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles has a low-end (20%) chance of becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead. Despite these two systems, the good news is there is no imminent tropical concerns nearby in the Gulf of Mexico.
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… A tropical storm will likely form over the next several days in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near or just south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The next name on the tropical storm naming list is “Fred.” This system will likely rapidly move west and northwest across the Atlantic Ocean, although it remains well too early to know if impacts for the Lesser Antilles or any part of the USA will be likely. Tropical waves moving west, emerging from Africa and moving into the Atlantic, are normal this time of year. Some of these tropical waves go on to become tropical storms and hurricanes but many do not. Here is the latest NHC discussion about this system as of 2PM EDT: “A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move off the coasts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau later tonight. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands by late Saturday or early Sunday while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.”
SEPARATE TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLANTIC… Another tropical wave is located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic Ocean. This tropical wave remains fairly disorganized. The odds of the tropical wave developing into a named tropical storm are at about a 20% chance right now. From NHC: “A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.”
LOCALLY, ONLY A FEW STORMS TODAY… As of 1PM, only a few small showers and thunderstorms are happening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Today will likely be our driest day overall out of the next 7 days. At the moment, heavy downpours of rain associated with highly localized showers and storms are happening near Spanish Fort, Fairhope, Tensaw, Bashi, Tallahatta Springs, and Campbell. These small storms are not moving much at all. A few more showers and storms will likely pop up over the next several hours, but widespread rain and storms are not expected today. Temperatures are in the upper-80s and near 90 across the region this afternoon.
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Have a nice Thursday evening!
