SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK… Severe thunderstorms will become possible early next week across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida ahead of an advancing cold front. Tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard concerns. Timing remains a bit uncertain, but it looks like Monday P.M. or Tuesday A.M. seems to be the time when severe storms will be most likely to happen across parts of our area. Please understand that forecast changes will be possible as this severe weather setup is still 4 days out. Be sure to check with me throughout the weekend for updates on this developing situation. NOW is the time to start thinking about your severe weather plan and what you would do if a tornado warning is required for your location early next week. We are headed into the “secondary” severe weather season over the next several weeks and this will probably be the first of several severe weather setups in the weeks ahead.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… Confidence in the overall timing of the severe weather risk specifically for south Alabama and northwest Florida remains a bit low at this point as the potential for severe storms is still 4 days out. Right now, Noon Monday to Noon Tuesday seems to be the 24 hour window when severe storms will happen. That is a 24 hour range, and intentionally a bit less specific for now. Differences in model guidance will be sorted out as the event gets closer. Be sure to check back with me this weekend for specifics on severe weather timing early next week.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR S.W. ALABAMA… The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama in a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Monday into Tuesday. This means that isolated instances of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be possible. Keep in mind this risk zone is in place four days before the actual setup happens. This means that changes to the risk zone, including upgrades and downgrades, will be likely over the next several days. SPC does not issue Level 1 (out of 5) low-end risk zones until the event is 3 days out, thus you can see in the attached image that the remainder of our local area would likely be included in the Level 1, lower-end risk zone surrounding the Level 2 risk in place for parts of southwest Alabama.
REMINDER: LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK IS THE “STANDARD” SLIGHT RISK… It has been many, many weeks since our local area has had a severe weather risk in place. Just as a refresher, especially for folks that may be new to our area, the Storm Prediction Center uses a forecast called the convective outlook to display probabilities for severe weather hazards. The convective outlook has six specific levels: General (non-severe) thunderstorms, Level 1 “marginal” risks, Level 2 “slight” risks, Level 3 “enhanced” risks, Level 4 “moderate” risks, and Level 5 “high” risks. Around here, you will not hear me use the (quite frankly, terrible) nomenclature of the risks from “marginal” to “high.” It is much more effective to use the numbers of the risks instead. The Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone is the standard, “slight” risk, meaning isolated severe storms may be possible. Sometimes, we see no severe weather on Level 2 risk days, but sometimes we see EF2+ tornadoes. The Flomaton-Century tornado on February 15, 2016 happened on a Level 2 risk day, as one local example.
MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK… The one good thing about having another weather system move through early next week, despite the severe weather risk, is the likelihood for more rainfall to help alleviate ongoing drought conditions across the region. The good, slow, steady rain we had earlier this week certainly was a great start, but we have a long way to go to declare the drought completely done. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5″ to 1.5″ in total will likely be commonplace across the region early next week.
DRY THANKSGIVING IN THE FORECAST… Rain and storms will be possible in the early part of the upcoming week but Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday are expected to be mostly sunny and dry. High temperatures will be in the upper-50s on Thursday and Friday with morning lows in the upper-30s.
NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM IN CARIBBEAN… Potential Tropical Cyclone #22 formed earlier this afternoon. The system will ultimately become Tropical Storm Vince over the next 48 hours. Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks & Caicos Islands. PTC22/Vince will not directly affect Alabama or northeast Florida.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have more details about the severe weather risk setting up for early next week posted in the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Thursday evening!
